06.06.08 Avoid soaring fuel prices on National Liftshare Day

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Do you think liftsharing could save you money?


If the current price of fuel is still proving too much for your wallet even with the cheapest stations at your fingertips there is another alternative.

Just like the country’s fuel prices, the popularity of car sharing in the UK is also rising steadily. It’s environmentally responsible, it’s sociable – and most importantly, as thousands more drivers are coming to realise, it can save you a fortune.

“I'm saving just over £1,200 a year in petrol alone, not to mention wear and tear on my car,” said one member, James. “We have all become good friends through car sharing and regularly socialise outside of travelling to work. There is a lot of conversation and humour! And the ability to sleep on the way to and from work is very appealing.”

Another member put it even more succinctly: “it’s a no-brainer”.

Car-sharing has never been more relevant - the national average for unleaded is currently 116.7p and the diesel average has hit 130.1p. Over the past couple of months, liftshare.com has seen daily registrations rise to unprecedented levels, with well over 900 new members signing up almost every day this week.

Monday 9 June is National Liftshare Day, so perhaps if you're really struggling to afford fuel at the moment now's the time to check it out. Registering takes just five minutes, then you can enter details of a journey you want to find matches with. You're then paired up with someone taking the same journey, and instantly you've halved your fuel costs. You can register for free at www.liftshare.com

Do you think liftsharing could save you money? Are high fuel prices driving you to find alternative ways to get around? Leave us a comment below.

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A Twelve-Step Plan to End Oil Addiction (courtesy of The Oil Drum)

1. Stop deluding ourselves. The era of cheap, readily-available oil has ended. Prices may fluctuate, but the underlying trend is up, up, up. We have to get used to using less.

2. Demand that politicians take the issue seriously. Make it an election issue. Don't take 'we've got everything under control' as an answer.

3. Stop building new roads. They're a monumental waste of money, time and effort. They encourage, rather than ease, congestion, and besides, the growth in car travel that's used to justify them isn't going to happen anyway.

4. Divert that money and effort into measures that address the challenges of oil depletion and climate change.

5. Make a major investment in public transport. It needs to be better, faster, more comfortable, more regular, and more predictable. It needs to cater for everyone, not just peak-hour commuters — though they need a better service as well.

6. Make a major investment in broadband internet to allow more people to work from home, and change tax and business practices that discourage working from home. The more car trips we can avoid, the better.

7. Electrify transport where possible. New Zealand is well placed to use renewable electricity for transport. We should be electrifying commuter rail where it is not already electric, using light rail (trams) in cities, and looking at electrification of the main trunk line. On the other end of the scale, electric bikes and scooters can make a big difference in our cities. And electric cars show promise, though there's a lot of questions to be answered yet.

8. Don't use cars unless there's no alternative. Take the bus. Take the train. Switch to a scooter. Walk or cycle - both your wallet and your doctor will thank you.

9. Deal with other aspects of our oil dependence. Agriculture, for example, is highly dependent on oil. We're going to need to change the way we grow and distribute food. Let's get to work on that now, not wait until supermarket shelves start to empty.

10. Stockpile or manufacture vital products currently imported from overseas. When oil runs short, will that still be possible? Let's take stock now and work out what we may need to start stockpiling or making in New Zealand.

11. Think local. Ending our oil addiction isn't just up to central government, though it can play its part. Communities can work together to make themselves more resilient. Join or start a Transition Towns group in your local area.

12. Accept reality. The age of cheap oil is over. It's not coming back. As individuals and as a nation, we have to adapt.

From this moment on, oil prices will continue to rise.

For the terminally bewildered amongst you I repeat:

The time is now to start thinking about and making changes to the way you live so your life is not so oil-centered. Remember that a lack of oil extends far beyond just not being able to drive your car - so many other products, services and industries are based on oil.

Start preparing for a life of austerity. NOW!

Find local employment. Reduce your debts. Reduce your fuel consumption. Grow your own vegetables or buy from local suppliers. Exercise regularly. Insulate your home. Help your family, friends and colleagues to understand the implications of Peak Oil.

Got it? :)

Posted by Peak Oil, 6th June 2008 7:36pm

I've got it, and as a barrel of oil rose to $140 today, you have to be pretty thick not to.
Or you could delude yourself into thinking it's 'speculators' 'the government' or those 'oil companies' or 'OPEC' or some other simplistic nonsense.
It's about flow rates. Conventional economics are out of the window.

Posted by Greg Brown, 6th June 2008 9:16pm

Finaly,
We have for the first time a real + action, the way to ease the price of fuel is to decrease our usage.

The cost of a barrel will continue to rise indefinately, I'm sure that they are going to milk the market for all it's worth.

The car manufactures are now starting to take the idea of not running cars on Petrol seriously, if you was a country that relied upon oil to sell for that consumption you would be worried.

I would recommend anyone that can get their car converted to run on gas as well as petrol does so, all though it remains to be seen how long it will take the greedy tax man to wallop that fuel too.

I think if cars ran on water the government would tax it.

Posted by Nigel Tasker, 6th June 2008 10:44pm

This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

Well oil as gone to $139 a barrel this evening ,well i live in scotland can not share car to work live near wick petrol is near £1.20 a litre here .Might be ok for some people in the south that pay under £1.15 a litre end of day that life get on with it or dont drive a car full stop world wide problem

Posted by Grant Davies, 7th June 2008 1:43am

There more to life then worry about petrol price be £1.50 a litre by end of summer as at a record high of $139 a barrel things will only get worse.

Posted by Grant Davies, 7th June 2008 1:48am

This is great for those that can actually do it. I trully wish I could but so far no one to share with. My job is in the out skirts of town.

Will keep trying though.

Great stuff Peak Oil + Fear (still)= no real solution.

Posted by Boo To Peak Oil, 9th June 2008 10:54am

car sharing - good idea if you can't take the bus, train or bike.

post #7,
"...My job is in the out skirts of town..." oil prices going up think about how much you would pay for petrol, £2/litre, £3/litre, £4/litre... no one to share with.

Sorry mate but your current solitary commute to work is ending. It might not be this week or even this year but it will be soon.

i would recommend you either move closer to your job if you like it and think you will be there for a while or look for another job closer to your home or on a transport route.

Denying Peak Oil + any of the following (denial, anger, bargaining, depression) = no real solution either.

Posted by Tonyw, 9th June 2008 11:10am

And here is a quiz for those wondering about Peak Oil, read the following and see how many of these things are already happening, or it doesn't take a genius to see happening. Thanks to ASPO:

'Initially it will be denied. There will be much lying and obfuscation. Then prices will rise and demand will fall. The rich will outbid the poor for available supplies. The system will initially appear to rebalance. The dash for gas will become more frenzied. People will realise nuclear power stations take up to ten years to build. People will also realise wind, waves, solar and other renewables are all pretty marginal and take a lot of energy to construct. There will be a dash for more fuel-efficient vehicles and equipment. The poor will not be able to afford the investment or the fuel.

Exploration and exploitation of oil and gas will become completely frenzied. More and more countries will decide to reserve oil and later gas supplies for their own people. Air quality will be ignored as coal production and consumption expand once more. Once the decline really gets under way, liquids production will fall relentlessly by 5%/year. Energy prices will rise remorselessly. Inflation will become endemic. Resource conflicts will break out.'

The solutions BTPO, if there are any, lie in preparing for the above. Or wait for the Government to do it for you - but don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen.

Posted by Greg Brown, 9th June 2008 11:49am

Actually after asking almost everyone at work I found one chap who is willing to do car sharing that means I will be able save save save. I will drive him for two weeks and he will drive me the other two weeks in a month. We both pay for our own fuel so no money exchanges hands, just brilliant.

I am well pleased with this idea. I don't know why I didn't think of it earlier.

Now I will enjoy more driving on weekends, as I will be able to afford more.

Guys are you going to argue Peak Oil for every post? We are talking about car sharing are we not?

I think the solution = Useful contributions to each (specific) topic - never ending Peak Oil discussion.

Less Peak Oil the better the solution.

Tonyw if become unemployed then I will be on benefits, imagine if 10 million more would be on the same boat there will be less money available for research.
Perhaps if I would become your househusband, you work and I spend we would be a winning green team lol.

Posted by Boo To Peak Oil, 9th June 2008 12:18pm

post #10
i am really pleased you have managed to find someone to car share with.
Unfortunately you have just demonstrated one of the big problems, you said "...Now I will enjoy more driving on weekends..." so the savings you make from car-sharing to and from work will be spent at weekends driving more and so keep bidding up the price of fuel:-(

"imagine if 10 million more would be on the same boat" if everybody takes the same attitude as you about driving more then there WILL be 10 million unemployed at least. Of course if it got to that stage there would be no more state benefits, you might get something from your local church, mosque, charity...

If you get unemployed then you're probably not attractive enough to be my "househusband" since on average there will be 7.5 million more attractive than you anway (half female, half of the remaining males:-) Since I'm a nice guy and you have given me a few laughs I might let you come and work on my farm and in exchange you can sleep in the barn and I'll give you some food.

Posted by Tonyw, 9th June 2008 12:50pm

Tonyw said, " If you get unemployed then you're probably not attractive enough to be my "househusband" since on average there will be 7.5 million more attractive than you anyway (half female, half of the remaining males:-) Since I'm a nice guy and you have given me a few laughs I might let you come and work on my farm and in exchange you can sleep in the barn and I'll give you some food."

LOL. At least I am sorted when the oil runs out. All I have to do is convince Tonyw to marry me lol.

Ok ok tonyw tell you what I will cut my weekend driving to planed trips and necessary journeys.

Posted by Boo To Peak Oil, 9th June 2008 2:28pm

"The decline of the industrial revolution" we will revert back to cottage industries and no longer be at the beck and call of the "rich and greedy" lets get back to a barter system with no money, all you can get for what you can put in (skill wise) gone will be the greedy fat cats as money will be gone you will rely upon your own skill set.

viva la revolution hehe!

P.S. wouldn't it be a good idea? all answers on a postcard to:

Mr Brown
10 downing street
London
SW1A 2AA

Posted by Bossman, 9th June 2008 5:50pm

Peak an Greg an Tonyw ya alllllllllllllll gotta lern ta relacs mon. Allllllllllll dis tork abowt de wurld runin owt a oil is givin us alllllllllll a big hedake. dere is plenti oil alllllllllllllllll ova de wurld an we aint gonna put up wid alllllllllllll of de udda contris takin it awa from us yanowadimin. wat wid nuclea an cole an gas an alllllllllll of de udda invenshuns dat is cumin anyday now we allllllllll gonna be alritee. if we hadda problim de govurnmen an de car companees wud av told us allllllllllll be now. dey keep makin de cars an we ceep byin dem. so were is de problim. me wive an ciddies r goin on de holidaas ani day now an we be usin a lotta petroll. stop scarin me mon abowt de prise of petrol. meesta brown ceep takin de taxss dat is de problim. we alllllllllllllll gotta avago at the govurnmen about allllllllllll of de taxss goin on de fuell an ciggis an everiting. yanowadamin. anyhoy jus relacs a bit an lern ta enjoi ya live mon. chil out mon. das allllllllllllllllll for todai.

Posted by Yehmon, 9th June 2008 8:03pm

Everybody is missing the point. Do the maths. Tax on petrol is 53p (+VAT) = 62p per litre. When petrol was £1 a litre that is 62% tax. The government were happy with that. Now they want 55p (+VAT) = 64p on a litre of petrol at £1.20 - that's 53%. Adding 2p means a cut in tax - isn't that what we all want?

Posted by Devils Advocate, 10th June 2008 10:11am

The answer is obvious - just slow down. Drive at 50mph instead of 70mph - save money (you'll get there just the same). Drive at 20mph instead of 30mph - be safer.

No speeding tickets, less stress, save money, same car, same freedom - why has no-one ever said "Just slow down!!!!"

Posted by Save 20% Now, 10th June 2008 10:16am

Blame all the analysts. They keep forecasting and shifting the blame on emerging markets like China and India. That is not the case at all. The production of oil is enough to satisfy the demand for this country. The oil companies have hiked up the prices to increase thier profits and pulled the wool over everyones eyes, saying its the Chinese and Indians fault. You only have to look at the profits posted by Shell and BP, the largest ever of any company in the world. The government has taken advatage thats all.
Hope this helps.

Posted by Ahmed Sheen, 10th June 2008 12:00pm

I've been lift sharing for 8 years now & have seen my fuel bills fall dramatically, even more so now i've closer to my place of work & changed to a diesel. I estimate my annual mileage has reduced by about 4,000mls per year - a big saving.
The price of diesel is 11% higher than petrol, another 9% and i'll consider moving back to a petrol vehicle next time.

I remember seeing a tv prog last year which said that fuel demand would outstrip supply between 2014 & 2020, this is just the beggining!

Posted by Chris T, 10th June 2008 7:23pm

I find car-sharing hard as people that I work with all live at different places, plus most people have their own car. I car share when i go out with friends when we all go out. The thing i do to save on petrol is keep to the speed limit and only use my car for work and when i really need to. Apart from that i either get the bus or walk.

Posted by Tracy Ward, 10th June 2008 7:44pm

Here's an idea, we keep hearing aboutswitching to Public Transport, well I live ina middle sized town in the midlands, work different shifts and If I relied on the buses I'd never get home.

However I am happy to pick a day where everyone that travels to work by car decides to use public transport, if done across the country we would bring all networks to a stand still.

We might all get into trouble for not getting to work but Oh well we won't be able to afford to get there soon anyway!

Posted by Mr Fish, 10th June 2008 9:27pm

Moving closer to work may be all very well and good, but with the high costs of moving and buying (all be it they have dropped a bit - house prices I mean), many will be lucky if they have a job to move closer to. Many companies are struggling as it is, in one way or another because of the rising costs imposed by the government. High oil prices, high retail prices, high redundancies, high repossessions, thieving government ministers.

The fact is this country has been taxed through the roof with no real evidence of improvement. God damn them!

Rule Britannia??? Its a joke!

Posted by Paul, 11th June 2008 9:15am

The G8 tried to "solve" the problem by encouraging OPEC to increase productivity .OPECs response to the west was there is enough fuel in the market. It beginning to look more and more like this is all a stunt to maximise investments.

Well that's just my humble opinion.

Posted by Boo To Peak Oil, 11th June 2008 10:21am

Re: 22

BTPO,

Dig a little deeper, you will find that OPEC makes all sorts of noises, underneath it all they can't increase production.
Consider the implications of them admitting this.
'Twilight in the Desert' sums it all up quite nicely.

Posted by Greg Brown, 11th June 2008 12:36pm

I was wondering, what does OPEC got to lose if they announce that they cant increase production.

Just dont see them losing money as a result.

Posted by Boo To Peak Oil, 11th June 2008 2:15pm

It would probably send the global economy into tailspin, hence it would be political suicide for them to say they can't increase production. They like BAU, and will say whatever is necessary to make it continue.

Back on topic, there was a piece on "Car Clubs" on today's "You and Yours" programme on Radio 4.

Out of curiosity, are you considering spending the money you save from car sharing on a wood-burning-stove or solar thermal for your home?

Posted by Bandidoz, 11th June 2008 3:04pm

Hmm, I think its best to save the "savings" for the future as fuel becomes more and more expensive.

Posted by Boo To Peak Oil, 12th June 2008 9:40am

The idea of WBS or ST is to insulate you from future increases of gas prices.

No pun intended ;)

Posted by Bandidoz, 12th June 2008 12:20pm



The Independent - Thursday, 12th June 2008

For generations, we've taken it for granted. But as prices soar and reserves dwindle, the time is fast approaching when mankind will have to live without oil. Are we ready to confront some really inconvenient truths? Michael Savage reports from the North Sea

Aberdeen heliport is heaving. Dozens of rig men are waiting to board helicopters and begin a two-week stint in the middle of the North Sea. It appears that business out on the rigs, known simply as "the job" in these parts, is booming. Eventually, it's our turn to board a cramped chopper, shoulder to shoulder with the solidly built workers who sit silently, psyching themselves up for a fortnight surrounded by cold, crashing waves.

Two hours later, we land at a rusting rig named Alwyn, 440 kilometres off the coast of Aberdeen. Ollie Bradshaw, the rig's burly production supervisor, meets the new arrivals.

"What's life like offshore? Busy. Very busy," he says. He's not joking. As we traipse around the rig's two platforms, perched 200 feet above the (thankfully) calm waters of the North Sea, we navigate between the numerous piles of scaffolding, timber and new equipment that take up almost every last square inch of space. The on-board population has swollen to 250 people lately. In some cases, three men are having to share a room, while new digs are built next to the rig's busy helipad, where several flights land and take off each day, delivering a conveyer belt of fresh workers - from painters and decorators to extra scaffolders and, of course, the men whose expertise lies in harvesting fossil fuels from beneath the sea bed.

Even in the common room, no one is standing idle - not around the television, nor the snooker table. The on-board gym is empty. In the canteen, a few men grab bacon rolls before heading off to start their 4pm shift. Those on an earlier shift have just had their lunch - there's been a run on lemon tart. Yet the hive of activity that Alwyn has become of late is not down to all the oil it is producing. Far from it.

"Alwyn started out as an oil well and platform more than two decades ago. As oil production has fallen, it has been adapted and changed," says Bradshaw, a man who seems devoted to his life here in the middle of nowhere. The rig's expanding team is having to work harder than ever to keep it going. A vast network of underground pipes has linked it to new pockets of oil and gas - some of the neighbouring platforms seem like they are just touching distance away. New techniques have been used to boost the quality of the last dregs of oil coming out of the ground. Empty reservoirs are being drained of natural gas. Now, a major discovery of a field of natural gas has meant that, after 21 years of work, Alwyn's creaking infrastructure is being given a facelift to keep going for another 20 years. But it will also mean its conversion from the oil platform it once was will be complete.

The end of Alwyn's oil well days is a familiar story in the North Sea. The rig men may be working as hard as ever, but UK oil production has been falling rapidly ever since 1999. In the past, that hasn't been such a problem - other producers around the world have always been able to produce more of the black stuff to keep the wheels of world industry lubricated. But according to some, that may be about to change. Oil prices are so high - $137 a barrel - and predicted by Alexey Miller, head of Gazprom, the Russian state energy giant, to rise as high as $250 a barrel - that social tensions have begun to emerge, while the world's leaders have been going cap in hand to oil producers, asking them to squeeze a few more barrels out of their wells. And as prices have kept on breaking records, an ever-growing worry looms in the background, the elephant in the room of the oil price rise: what if they can't produce any more? What if, this time, the oil taps really are running dry?

Worryingly, for a world reliant on the dirt-cheap energy that oil provided throughout the last century, the idea that oil production in all nations may soon start to decline just as in the North Sea has been seeping into the mainstream. The "peak oil" theory - that oil production has reached its maximum and will soon begin its decline, bringing potentially catastrophic consequences to the modern world - no longer just comes from internet crackpots and conspiracy theorists; now geologists, market analysts and oil prospectors believe that this scenario is becoming reality. And within the past year, there have been signs that the major oil companies are admitting this themselves. If they are right, high petrol prices could be the least of the world's problems.

The idea is simple enough. Those warning against an imminent peak oil crisis - the "peakists" - say that while the world will not totally run out of oil, all of the oil that is easy to reach has been all but used up, meaning that producing enough oil to meet the growing world demand is becoming an ever harder task. Worse, we now stand at the high water mark of oil production. That means that not only will we never be able to produce much more oil than the 87 million barrels a day we now consume, but world oil production will actually begin to fall very soon, causing not only ever higher prices, but also creating the prospect of shortages, industrial upheaval, battles over ever-depleting resources, and even an end to the modern world built upon the assumption of a plentiful supply of cheap oil.

"A lot of people keep talking about 'this peak oil theory' - but there's nothing theoretical about it. It's just a very obvious fact of nature," says Colin Campbell, a geologist who searched for oil on behalf of several oil companies, and is the high priest of the peakists. "Oil is formed in the geological past. That means it's a finite resource. That means production begins and ends, and passes a peak in between. So the fact that there is a peak is beyond dispute. We've had the first half of the age of oil, which has changed the world in every conceivable way. We now face a decline."

Campbell is in no doubt that the world's oil production is as high as it is ever going to get. "The result of the latest update I made using industry data was that the regular, conventional oil peaked in 2005 and if you put all the other types in - the heavy oils, the gas liquids, the Arctic oil, the deep water projects - I have it this year," he says, in a softly spoken, matter-of-fact tone. "That's not cast in stone. It could slip a year or two. But I'm absolutely confident that it's in the right area."

Whereas Campbell's fears once branded him a wacky radical, as the years have gone by he has been joined by a growing band of industry experts who have reached a similarly grim conclusion. One of those was an American investment banker examining "flow rates" - the speed at which oil was being taken out of the ground. After being asked to advise Donald Rumsfeld and George Bush on energy policy during the 2000 election campaign, Matthew Simmons found that more and more oil fields had begun to decline. That was because, though new technology was helping to extract oil faster than ever before, it was also causing the fields to run dry more quickly, too. "All of a sudden there were fields that were declining by as much as 30 per cent per year," he says. "But I didn't call it 'peak oil' - I didn't even know what that was back then."

Simmons came across peak oil in 2002, when he attended the first meeting of a new group founded by Colin Campbell. Only around 45 people showed up to the first meeting of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (Aspo), but since then, its findings have convinced a lot more people around the world. Aspo now has branches in 36 countries, with Kuwait the latest wanting to found one. And some serious analysts have also made the mental journey from dissenters to peak-oil prophets.

"I've been on that journey," says Chris Skrebowski, who spent half his career in the oil industry and now edits the UK oil industry's publication of record, Petroleum Review. He admits to having been dismissive of the idea that the world's wells were running dry. It was a visit from Campbell in 1996 that made him change his mind. "I didn't quite believe him, but I didn't think he was the average nutter," he says. Skrebowski began to take a look at the issue himself. The numbers told a clear story. "You can just about struggle through to 2011, if everything goes to plan - which, of course, it won't - but after that, the numbers don't add up. And that's taking a reasonably conservative rate of decline. If you wind it up to a 5 or 6 per cent annual decline, then you are at this peak or plateau now."

One man who believes that could be the real rate of decline is the archetypal US oilman, T Boone Pickens, otherwise known as the "Oracle of Oil". Having made a fortune in the oil industry, Pickens now invests heavily in the oil alternatives he believes will be necessary to fill the gap left by falling oil production.

From the window of helicopter, flying above the uninviting waves of the North Sea, it seems hard to believe that the world could really be running low on easy oil. Dozens of rigs pepper the vast expanse of water, their burning flares making them look like floating candles. Spiralling wisps of smoke fill the North Sea sky - a reminder that there is still oil churning around. Despite the pedigree of the peakists, it's hard not to think we've heard it all before, that it's just the usual doomsayers predicting that the oilfields would run out, and that more will be found somewhere. But for the peakists, the North Sea is a great case study. Its rapid decline has come despite all the advantages the modern world could throw at it.

"The North Sea has the benefit of all the investment anybody could need," says Campbell. "It's got the most modern technology, and it's got a political environment that's stable. There's no reason why it would be producing less oil than is possible, yet it has been declining at a rate of 7 per cent a year." Perhaps even more worryingly, the last year has seen major oil companies begin to make more noises about potential problems ahead. Foremost among them has been head of the French oil company Total, Christophe de Margerie, who has declared that world production will never exceed 100 billion barrels a day, a level of demand expected in less than a decade. "The oil companies are changing their tune," says Campbell. "They can't quite say 'peak' in so many words. They don't want to rock the boat."

Back on dry land, in a seafood restaurant in Aberdeen, a senior oil executive talks freely about a future. "We can try to slow the decline, but we will never stop it," he says casually, over a plate of scallops. "All we can do is get as much oil out of the ground as possible." Meanwhile, Colin Campbell is flirting with official approval. He is already advising a Norwegian oil firm, and has recently been invited to give informal presentations to executives from two of the world's biggest oil companies. A clear momentum has been built up around peak oil fears. For Simmons, it is the peak oil deniers that are now the ones sounding shrill. "I daily read these shrill sounding experts who still believe that oil should be at $40 a barrel," he says. "It's just unbelievable. It's still cheap."

Not everyone is convinced by the peak oil theory, though. This week, The Independent reported that, according to Richard Pike, a former oil industry man, now chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry, there is more than twice as much oil in the ground than producers claim. But the most notable peak oil refusnik is the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil supply watchdog set up by the world's richest nations. It has said that not only is the world not running out of oil, but that production will continue to match the 135 million barrels a day that is forecast to be needed by 2050. It says that while conventional sources of oil may only provide around 92 million barrels a day of that, investment in Saudi Arabia's fields and the growth of new sources of oil will provide the rest.

To the peakists, these standard oil industry ripostes are starting to wear a little thin, and have been damaged by the crashing and burning of some great white hopes. Not a single barrel of commercially viable shale oil, made from oil-rich sedimentary rock, has yet been produced. Oil made from tar sands found in northern Canada is near the top of the list of innovative sources of oil, but even the oil companies themselves admit that the amount of energy currently needed to produce a single barrel of it makes it very inefficient. And while drilling into ever-deeper waters might keep world production on its current plateau, the peakists say the days of "easy oil" are over.

As for the comforting idea that Saudi Arabia could simply turn up its taps and produce far more oil if it felt like it - the preferred belief of President Bush and Gordon Brown - the peakists have some pretty big problems with that, too. "The one thing that made peak oil a bogus issue was the supposedly proven fact that in the Middle East, we had 200 years of oil supply," says Simmons. "Because of that, we obviously couldn't have peaked. I'd just assumed it had to be true. Then I started doing my research." After poring over more than 200 technical papers, he made the grim conclusion that, just like elsewhere, production in Saudi Arabia was either at or very near its peak.

And even the conservative estimates of the IEA have not been unaffected by the spectre of peak oil. It has decided to review how it sources its data on oil reserves, which is widely expected to lead to a lowering of its predictions of future oil supplies when it publishes its overview of the industry in November. If it, too, reveals that the days of free flowing oil could be over, the halls of power might begin to take notice.

None of this will make any difference to life on the Alwyn rig in the near future. For the next 20 years, it will be producing natural gas, and making low-grade oil from some of it. "We'll be here until every last drop of oil is out of the ground," Ollie Bradshaw reassures me.

But unlike Alwyn, more rigs will be decommissioned than refurbished if the peak oil theorists turn out to be right - and they warn that the effects on the world could be dramatic.

A world without plentiful oil, as described by the peakists, looks very different from today's. The peakists are in no doubt about the aspect of modern living that would have to change. With transport soaking up the vast majority of the world's oil, they maintain that our addiction to the car will have to go. According to Chris Skrebowski, large-scale electrification will be needed in all vehicles, perhaps with pylons placed down motorways to provide power. Diesel-powered public transport needs to be replaced with electric trains, trams, and trolley buses. That would create breathing space to make more profound societal changes, such as a growth of working from home. Matthew Simmons also sees the current global economy soon becoming unsustainable. "Local farms are now coming back," he says. "We have all the technology in place to do that."

That's just for starters. According to Campbell, a wholesale change in the western lifestyle will be needed a little further down the road. "Cities will face massive challenges," he says. "By the end of the century, when there really isn't very much oil left, the world will be a very different one - much more rural, probably with fewer people. It's a sort of doomsday message, but in some ways, it's just a change from the modern mindset. There are people in the world who live a simple life like that and are very happy." But that's nothing compared with what could happen if we attempt to carry on regardless with ever-growing oil consumption. "If we don't make changes, we're going to have a resource war and blow ourselves up," says Simmons. "I think that would be a really inconvenient way to end the world."

So will the end of the oil age herald in a new dark age? Are we doomed to go back to sheltering in mud huts and living off a diet of turnips and water? Not necessarily. Thankfully, other peakists are optimistic that we can cope with a world without such vast quantities of cheap oil - if we act now. "Humanity is very ingenious," says Skrebowski. "But at the moment, it doesn't yet see a crisis. We're just acting like a spoilt child who has had its lollipop taken away. At some point, some politician has got to come out and state clearly that the world is going to be different. It's not the end of the world, but we're all going to have to change the way we do things. And the sooner we get on with it, the better. The anticipation is probably worse than the reality."

Let's hope he's right.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Start preparing for a life of austerity. NOW!

Find local employment. Reduce your debts. Reduce your fuel consumption. Grow your own vegetables or buy from local suppliers. Exercise regularly. Insulate your home. Help your family, friends and colleagues to understand the implications of Peak Oil.

Posted by Peak Oil, 13th June 2008 7:15am

Re: 28

Well that article didn't pull any punches did it?

Posted by Greg Brown, 13th June 2008 9:58am

Peak oil really knows how to ruin someones weekend doesn't (s)he. We all know oil is a finite resource. but we also know that we WILL come up with alternatives.

Posted by Rob Johns, 13th June 2008 11:03am

US supermajor ExxonMobil said today it is selling all of the service stations it owns in the US because high prices for crude oil have made it harder for the company to turn a profit at its retail outlets.

post # 30, "...we also know that we WILL come up with alternatives...."
It is not obvious we can come up with alternatives that allow us to continue in the same way. Some of the finest brains in the world are working on the problems but there are no EASY answers. Remember that the energy in one barrel of oil is equal to 12 people working for a year, $135/barrel seems very cheap compared to that. If someone could create a battery today that stored say only four times the amount of energy per kg as current batteries and could be recharged in 2-3 minutes they would probably become the richest person on earth.

The best thing that we people can do now is demand our politicians admit to the problems rather than waiting until they are out of office. Next start trying to use less energy by insulating our houses, drive less.... Note, it's not only oil that is becoming scarce but also natural gas.

Now go back and read post #28 again twice and concentrate.

Posted by Tonyw, 13th June 2008 12:37pm

Now just in case you did not read post #28

The Viking settlers in Greenland died out when they did not change their ways when the climate got colder - they knew how to as they were in contact with the Eskimos, but the Viking way of life was non-negotiable!

Posted by Tonyw, 13th June 2008 1:06pm

Higher fuel prices will only drive overall livings costs higher, leading to higher inflation - a never ending spiral.

Why cant government act?

If they gave the subject any thought they would peg fuel costs to a specified price bracket, increasing and reducing the tax burden, keeping prices stable - similar to interest rates set by the BOE. Dont blame the BOE when the inflation target is not met....

Government prefer to seat back and enjoy the revenue stream - at the taxpayers expense!

Posted by Dean Banfield, 13th June 2008 2:03pm

You've hit the nail on the head Rob Johns, the only real problem is

1. finding an alternative that actually enables the privileged few to make money

2. Tonyw, Greg Brown and Peak Oil not having enough faith in mankind's abilities.

Dont worry too much about it, there must be a balance between change and time.

Enjoy your weekend

Posted by Boo To Peak Oil, 13th June 2008 5:07pm



Financial Times - Wednesday, 11th June 2008

Oil and gas should be the preserve of makers of industrial goods such as plastics and fertilisers, with consumers relying for the bulk of their energy needs on more sustainable sources such as wind, water and sunlight, according to the head of one of Europe's largest energy groups.

Technological advances in renewable energy such as wind and solar generation meant the power industry was better equipped to wean itself off oil and gas than many industrial goods makers, said Ignacio Sánchez Galán, executive chairman of Spain's Iberdrola.

"Can we live in the future without things like fertilisers, plastics and certain types of polymers?" he said in an interview with the Financial Times.

"How is urea going to be produced and most industrial goods going to be produced without oil? We do not currently have alternatives for these products. However, we do have alternatives for energy production." His remarks add a new element to the debate about high oil prices and their impact on the economy and companies. Industries such as chemicals, plastics and tyre-making use large amounts of oil in manufacturing processes.

"He is right," said Joachim Belz, chief executive of Weidmuller, a German manufacturer of components for the electric and telecoms industries and a big consumer of plastics. "We don't see at the moment any chance of replacing plastics with something not based on oil."

Mr Galán's comments were reflected last week by Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency, who said a "technology revolution" was needed to halve greenhouse emissions by 2050.

He also said carbon offset schemes would need to charge $200 a tonne - compared with $43 in the European Union - to deliver the emission cuts needed to avert the threats of global warming. An IEA report commissioned by global leaders found that the world needed to build 32 new nuclear plants and 17,500 wind turbines every year.

Iberdrola is the world's largest wind energy group as well as the leading generator of electricity in Spain and one of the largest in Europe, where it owns Scottish Power in the UK.

Mr Galán said he was also concerned about oil reserves, which he described as "scarce and getting scarcer". He said: "Do we want to be responsible for burning out in our generation, or this century, resources created over millions of years?" He underlined the increasing attractiveness of wind and solar energy, adding: "We must do everything possible to reduce dependence on oil, regardless of the cost."

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Start preparing for a life of austerity. NOW!

Find local employment. Reduce your debts. Reduce your fuel consumption. Grow your own vegetables or buy from local suppliers. Exercise regularly. Insulate your home. Help your family, friends and colleagues to understand the implications of Peak Oil.

Posted by Peak Oil, 14th June 2008 7:33am

If the government & the oil companies are totally to blame, how then does the price of fuel vary so much between filling Stations. Today I bought Unleaded Petrol from a Tesco Garage in Hartlepool (NE England) which was 3p/Litre cheaper than in a Billingham Tesco garage which is only approx 4 miles away. Lets not forget that the retailers are also using the oil crisis to make money where they can, and add to our increasing burdon. Lets see them also in the firing line and get a fair across the UK.

Posted by Mark Holdsworth, 14th June 2008 1:07pm

Billions of tons of fuel lost in WW2 and in local wars since, America still burns it as if it is never ending, the Chinese and Indians used to go everywhere on pedal cycles, and the British governent keeps the tax pressure on because we are broke curing everyone elses troubles.

Natural fuel is slowly running out, and we must get used to it. There is only a finite amount of chip fat and natural gas. This over-populated world must also eat. The crunch has only now hit home, whereas the writing has been on the wall for some years. And remember this, the USA still has plenty in its wells, it is too busy using up everyone elses first. When the world has run out, the USA will be both king and dictator.

Posted by Stu Granger, 14th June 2008 6:23pm

now that Shell is hurting wait for them to refill there suppliers then dont use them to fill up. use other suppliers instead then they may be forced to lower the price to shift it.
Other suppliers may be forced to follow.

Posted by Gj, 15th June 2008 2:26pm

I'm sure car sharing and the better use of public transport is good for those living in major towns and cities that have the infrastructure in place to support such schemes, but out here in rural Britain it isn't practical as the public transport system is not frequent or even present in most places and because of distances, car sharing is not practical either. For those who say, move nearer your work place or change jobs, then all i can say to you is : get your heads out of the sand and get real, this is the real world we live in not some idealistic fantasy playground for yuppies !

Posted by George Musgrave, 15th June 2008 3:29pm

Like most things in this country of ours, where there is a high demand there usually follows a high tax; you only need to review the governments taxing policy on beer, wines, spirits, cigarettes/tobacco and fuel. Unless demand falls then there is no escaping the high prices.
Most recently I spent some time in the Canary Islands and hired a car while I was there, and unsurprisingly the cost of unleaded petrol was cheaper than in the UK - just 72p per litre!! (Although this too had seen some increases as confirmed by the garage managers)
Car sharing is a great idea but impractical for the minority who live in rural areas and let's face it, the public transport system in the UK falls well short of the service we see in our neighbouring EU countries and can only be classed as 3rd class at best.

Posted by David Young, 15th June 2008 11:02pm

Re:39

"For those who say, move nearer your work place or change jobs, then all i can say to you is : get your heads out of the sand and get real, this is the real world we live in not some idealistic fantasy playground for yuppies !"

You are in the fantasy playground now, and the sooner YOU get your head out of the sand the better for you and yours.
This world you live in, it's entire fabric, is based on cheap, plentiful energy.
This is where the law of diminishing returns enters with a flourish of it's cape, and we all start to feel it's bite. You are in the early stages now, listen to the squeals, and that's from little more than a love bite.
Fossil fuels have very unique properties which are not replicated elsewhere, and you would have to be pretty stupid to believe things are never going to change, they MUST change, it is a physical inevitability - this marvellous energy source is finite, it is at or very close to peak global production.
The challenge is how to manage a lower energy future, carrying on as we are now simply isn't an option.
And just exactly is so wrong with living in the inevitable lower energy future?
What is so awful about starting to make some basic common sense decisions?
You might as well take some personal responsibilty starting now, the later it's left, the harder it will be. As our chum Peak Oil repeatedly points out:

" Find local employment. Reduce your debts. Reduce your fuel consumption. Grow your own vegetables or buy from local suppliers. Exercise regularly. Insulate your home. Help your family, friends and colleagues to understand the implications of Peak Oil."

You don't have to do it all this week, but at start something happening. Any long journey starts the same way - with the first step.


Posted by Greg Brown, 16th June 2008 11:30am

I think this is one of the things people can do to help themselves. Good idea.

As some of the other posters have said above, and I have said elsewhere on petrolprices.com, car sharing is only ONE of the things that MUST be done to protect yourself from the coming shocks.

Posted by Adam, 16th June 2008 11:53am

Re: 41

You comment without knowing the persons job. He/she may be in the medical or vetinary industry, or farming based, ie, milk tanker or other such essential industry. Not everyone can live in the country, nor can they all live in the urban conurbations. How dfo we know that country folk haven't asked for home base work via the internet and been refused by intransigent employers?

One thing I do know, and that is if they resort to animal transport, ie, horse or pony carraige, our urban councils will soon slap a ban on it, or put some sort of cleanup tax or fine on it. And it would be days, rather than weeks before the city whingers would soon start moaning about the horse muck left on the roads (I live in a city, but welcome the muck for my cabbage patch, and I am old enough to remember when milk and bread was delivered by horse drawn cart).

This country has to wake up to the fact that we all all in the mire, and blaming country/urban dwellers for where they live is both stupid and downright selfish.

Posted by Stu Granger, 16th June 2008 4:05pm

Lift sharing is all very well for those who are employed and working in one town all day, but this is not practical for those of us that are self employed and have to travel to more than one place, and/or carry the tools of their trade with them. I am a self employed accountant, living in Cornwall, with clients spread some distance apart, and often need to travel to more than one client during the day, therefore, lift sharing just is not practical. I have a number of clients who are self employed builders/painters & decorators etc. Please explain to them how they can lift share and carry all of their tools and equipment, paint etc, and find a lift that would get them to their destination for 8am and then be able to pick them up at 8pm or later - it just is not practical! WE ALL NEED TO JOIN THE DEMONSTRATIONS AND TELL THIS APPALLING GOVERNMENT THAT WE ARE NOT STANDING FOR ANY MORE OF THEIR APPALLING BEHAVIOUR AND FORCE THEM TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF DUTY BEING LEVIED ON FUEL IN THIS COUNTRY. IT IS NOT THE OIL COMPANIES THAT ARE MAKING OUR PRICES SO EXTORTIONATELY HIGH. THEY SUPPLY THE SAME FUELS AT THE SAME COST PRICES ALL OVER THE WORLD AND YET IT IS ONLY HERE THAT WE ARE NOW PAYING £5.36 PER GALLON FOR UNLEADED AND £5.80 PER GALLON FOR DIESEL. HOW MANY TIMES DO THE PUBLIC NEED TO HEAR THAT THE OIL COMPANIES ONLY RECEIVE APPROX 50 PENCE OF THE AMOUNT THAT WE PAY AND THE REST GOES TO THIS GOVERNMENT IN TAX, BEFORE THEY GET IT!!!!!!! LETS TAKE ACTION AND FORCE THIS GOVERNMENT TO CHANGE NOW!!!

Posted by Brian Dennett, 16th June 2008 4:21pm

If you look at fuel prices around Europe they are not so different from here in the UK. I donm't know how each countrys tax system works (any more than our own!) but it does indicate that British taxes on fuel are not wildlydifferent

Posted by Tim Preeece, 16th June 2008 9:42pm

Since each time you fill your petrol tank up, the government "snatches" a whopping 360% tax on your purchase isn't there anyone out there who believes that this is just a tad naughty? even for a sneaky socialist self interested government such as lead by "Grumpy" Brown! Come on! Wake up people - you go to work; your earn your money; they remove at least 45% of it BEFORE they let you keep the remainder; then they have the audacity to tell you it is perfectly NORMAL for them to tax you at 360% when you buy the petrol you NEED so you can get to and from work! Think about it - in order to purchase just one gallon of petrol at say £5.60pence you have to EARN £10.00 thus in fact the TRUE PRICE OF PETROL IS £10.00 a gallon!
The government are all a bunch of thieves - who legally steal your money, throw at one badly planned and execute socialist experiment after another and we just keep on working for them! Oh! bye the way - I escaped ! I am writing this from the sunny Caribbean island of Aruba !! ha ha ha!

Posted by Stuart H-c, 17th June 2008 1:57am

I just wonder how many of the people complaining here about the level of fuel duty voted for the Labour Party at the last three elections. Anyone who did vote Labour has only themselves to blame for the appalling waste in the economy that means this government has to grab every little bit of tax revenue from you where ever it can. They can't afford to lose any tax from anywhere. If you want to carry on paying extortionate amounts of tax vote Labour or even LibDem at the next election because they are both of the opinion that they know how to spend your money better than you do.

But, even if the government did reduce the tax, the cost of oil would soon catch up with that reduction and everyone would be back where they started. The only way to save yourselves money is to use your car less and when you do use it, drive as economically as possible. For those who do live in the country, as I do, it's just tough because Peak Oil isn't going away, ever.

Posted by Ken Neal, 17th June 2008 3:32am

We are hitting £123.9 a litre in some areas now, soon we will be faced with paying £2.00a ltr. Philip Hollsworth offered this good idea:

This makes MUCH MORE SENSE than the 'don't buy petrol on a certain day campaign that was going around last April or May! The oil companies just laughed at that because they knew we wouldn't
continue to hurt ourselves by refusing to buy petrol. It was more of an inconvenience to us than it was a problem for them. BUT,whoever
thought of this idea, has come up with a plan that can really work.

Please read it and join in!

Now that the oil companies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to think that the cost of a litre is CHEAP, we need to take aggressive action to teach them that BUYERS control the market place
not sellers. With the price of petrol going up more each day, we consumers need to take action. The only way we are going to see the price of petrol come down is if we hit someone in the pocket by not
purchasing their Petrol! And we can do that WITHOUT hurting ourselves. Here's the idea:

For the rest of this year DON'T purchase ANY petrol from the two biggest oil companies (which now are one), ESSO and BP.


If they are not selling any petrol, they will be inclined to reduce their prices. If they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit. But to have an impact we need to reach literally millions of Esso and BP petrol buyers. It's really simple to do!!

Now, don't wimp out at this point... keep reading and I'll explain how simple it is to reach millions of people!!

I am sending this note to a lot of people. If each of you send it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300)... and those 300 send it to at least ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000) ... and so on, by the time the
message reaches the sixth generation of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers! If those three million get excited and
pass this on to ten friends each, then 30 million people will have been contacted! If it goes one level further, you guessed it... ..

THREE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE!!!

Again, all You have to do is send this to 10 people. That's all.(and not buy at ESSO/BP) How long would all that take? If each of us sends this email out to ten more people within one day of receipt,
all 300 MILLION people could conceivably be contacted within the next 8days!!! Acting together we can make a difference .. If this makes
sense to you, please pass this message on.

PLEASE HOLD OUT UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES TO THE 69p a LITRE RANGE

It's easy to make this happen. Just forward this email, and buy your petrol at Shell, Asda,Tesco, Sainsburys, Morrisons Jet etc. i.e. boycott BP and Esso

Posted by Martin Jenkins, 17th June 2008 11:13am

the usual cutting and pasting, just think who supplies the rest, shell drivers strike, is it just the shell garages that have run out? no, why because we purchased it from elsewhere and nothing will change, Reducing tax is the only way the fuel will reduce.

Posted by To Much Tax, 17th June 2008 12:39pm

peak oil,tony waanker, greg brown,

obviusly you still havent woken up aND SMELT THE COFFEE!
OIL HAS GONE UP BEACUSE DOLLAR HAS GONE DOWN! NOT BEACUSE IT IS RUNNING OUT!
THE US DOLLAR HAS GONE DOWN BECAUSE MORTGAGES WERE NOT GETTING PAID.

PRICES GO UP BECAUSE OIL GOES UP!

GOVERNMENT CAN SOLVE THIS BY REDUCEING THE TAXES ON THE FUEL!

IT IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE MUPPETS

Posted by Matt Beasley, 18th June 2008 12:39am

VOTING TORY WILL NOT SOLVE THIS ISSUE NEITHER.
REMEMBER WHAT MRS T DID THAT RIGHT SHUT THE MINES!
WOULD WE BE IN THE PREDICAMENT AS WE ARE IN THE NOW IF WE HAD ACCESS TO OUR OWN ENERGY STORES? NOPE!

Posted by Matt Beasley, 18th June 2008 12:43am

DONT PAY FOR YOUR TAX DISC!
YOU WONT GET ANY POINTS THEY WILL TRY TO TAKE YOU TO COURT MAY EVEN IMPOUND YOUR VEHICLE BUT IF EVERYBODY DOES IT THEY WOULD SOON GET THE MESSAGE!

WE LIVE IN A DICTATORSHIP FOR SURE

Posted by Matt Beasley, 18th June 2008 1:05am

Re: 52.

I can only afford to use my car to get to/from work, lets have a bright idea and not pay the car tax, they impound my £400 mondeo, how the hell do i get to work then?,. if this was the answer i'd simply stop using my car now, but i can't so we will have to continue paying.

The problem is the TAX in this country, there is no other problem. i hate to pay more than i have to, but if the real item is £1. then i dont mind paying a £1, but fuel is about 45p and the rest is TAX that is the problem.

Posted by Too Much Tax, 18th June 2008 9:10am

re: 53

yes i agree with you it is the tax that the problem.

the point i am trying to prove if everybody did not pay there tax the government will have to have a rethink.

the government friten the motorist into submission but i think the motorist is being persacuted.

we need to fight for our beliefs we need to fight for freedom.

the government have asked/demanded a 10,000 pay increase most of the working class are geting no or a measely 2% rise

Posted by Matt Beasley, 18th June 2008 5:19pm

CANT BELIEVE MY EYES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Just gone past a petrol station with the price of unleaded hitting 200.9p per litre omg !!!!! this is bad im really worried about this now and diesel 210.9p per litre.

Posted by Simon Savage, 21st June 2008 12:39am

Fuel is still rising in Leeds what do we expect it would fall NO CHANCE the oil companys needs the extra money to pay the tanker drivers & recover the loses when they went on strike at least the tanker drivers can afford the fuel, unlike the normal motorist, I for 1 am registered disabled the goverment or fuel companys & tanker driver dont care if we the disabled can afford to buy fuel"""" saying that its not just my group of motorists its every group unless you fall in the eliete tanker drivers group """"SIMON SAVAGE"""" ref your where is the garage lets name and shame them maybe then people will bypass them putting the robbing ******** out of buisness^^^ i bet the owner wont be there it will be some poor sod working there getting the stick

Posted by David Robinson, 21st June 2008 8:59am

To get back to the debate, I car shared once with 3 others. At first, it was fine, then we became privatised (a large national utility). Then the pressure of work started, and it was normal for some of the sharers to stay at their desks for many hours after normal knock-off time, leaving the rest to sit and twidde our thumbs, as our work was all completed. Besides, we didn't get paid overtime, because as managers, it was unheard of, and so was time off in leau. In the end, it bacame totally unworkable, and we reverted back to our own modes of transport. Some of my sharers, the more senior managers, where working 18 hours a day, for 7 days a week.

That was before many reorganisations and Early 'Voluntary' Retirement was offered, and like thousands of others, I got out of the rat race, took the money and ran. The best thing I ever did!

It is OK for those working on the shop floor, or with fixed hours, but market forces rule, and if you live many mile away, it becomes totally unfair to the others to keep them from their families whilst you are glued to the grindstone.

Posted by Stu Granger, 23rd June 2008 8:11pm

can anyone tell me why we export diesel ,then import same oil at a higher price . profiteering corpret style eh.

Posted by Ian Lonsdale, 23rd June 2008 10:09pm

THE 'PEAK OIL' MYTH: NEW OIL IS PLENTIFUL

The data is becoming conclusive that peak oil is a myth. High oil prices are doing their job as oil exploration is flush with new finds:

1. An offshore find by Brazilian state oil company Petrobras in partnership with BG Group and Repsol-YPF may be the world's biggest discovery in 30 years, the head of the National Petroleum Agency said. A deep-water exploration area could contain as much as 33 billion barrels of oil, an amount that would nearly triple Brazil's reserves and make the offshore bloc the world's third-largest known oil reserve. "This would lay to rest some of the peak oil pronouncements that we were out of oil, that we weren't going to find any more and that we have to change our way of life," said Roger Read, an energy analyst and managing director at New York-based investment bank Natixis Bleichroeder Inc.

2. A trio of oil companies led by Chevron Corp. has tapped a petroleum pool deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico that could boost U.S. reserves by more than 50 percent. A test well indicates it could be the biggest new domestic oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay a generation ago. Chevron estimated the 300-square-mile region where its test well sits could hold up to 15 billion barrels of oil and natural gas

3. Kosmos Energy says its oil field at West Cape Three Points is the largest discovery in deep water West Africa and potentially the largest single field discovery in the region.

4. A new oil discovery has been made by Statoil in the Ragnarrock prospect near the Sleipner area in the North Sea. "It is encouraging that Statoil has made an oil discovery in a little-explored exploration model that is close to our North Sea infrastructure," says Frode Fasteland, acting exploration manager for the North Sea.

5. Shell is currently analyzing and evaluating the well data of their own find in the Gulf of mexico to determine next steps. This find is rumored to be capable of producing 100 billion barrels. Operating in ultra-deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the Perdido spar will float on the surface in nearly 8,000 ft of water and is capable of producing as much as 130,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

6. In Iraq, excavators have struck three oil fields with reserves estimated at about 2 billion barrels, Kurdish region's Oil Minister Ashti Horami said.

7. Iran has discovered an oil field within its southwest Jofeir oilfield that is expected to boost Jofeir's oil output to 33,000 barrels per day. Iran's new discovery is estimated to have reserves of 750 million barrels, according to Iran's Oil Minister, Gholamhossein Nozari.

8. The United States holds significant oil shale resources underlying a total area of 16,000 square miles. This represents the largest known concentration of oil shale in the world and holds an estimated 1.5 trillion barrels of oil with 800 billion recoverable barrells - enough to meet U.S. demand for oil at current levels for 110 years. More than 70 percent of American oil shale is on Federal land, primarily in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. In Utah, a developer says his company already has the technology to produce 4,000 barrels a day using a furnace that can heat up rock using its own fuel. ''This is not a science project,'' said Daniel G. Elcan, managing director of Oil Shale Exploration Corp. ''For many years, the high cost of extracting oil from shale exceeded the benefit. But today the calculus is changing,'' President George Bush said. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said the country has to do everything it can to boost energy production. ''We have as much oil in oil shale in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado as the rest of the world combined,'' he said.

9. In western North Dakota there is a formation known as the Bakken Shale. The formation extends into Montana and Canada. Geologists have estimated the area holds hundreds of billions of barrels of oil. In an interview provided by USGS, scientist Brenda Pierce put the North Dakota oil in context. "Of the current USGS estimates, this is the largest oil accumulation in the lower 48," Pierce says. "It is also the largest continuous type of oil accumulation that we have ever assessed." The USGS study says with todays technology, about 4 billion barrels of oil can be pumped from the Bakken formation. By comparison, the 4 billion barrels in North Dakota represent less than half the oil in the Arctic National Wildlife refuge which has an estimated 10 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

The peak oil theory is a money making scam put out by the speculators looking for high commodity returns in a challenging market environment. Most of the above mentioned finds have occurred in the last two years alone. I didn't even mention the untapped Alaskan oil fields or the recent Danish and Australian finds. In the long term, crude prices will find stability at historic norms because there is no supply problem. How much longer will investors ignore these new oil finds? Probably until they can find other investment alternatives which won't happen in the broad market until financials (XLF) stop hemorrhaging. Respect the trend but understand that this is a bubble preparing to burst. When oil hit it's high of $139 it represented more than a 600% increase in crude since the bull market began, returns eerily similar to the dot.com craze.

There are many theories that sound good but just aren't true. Take Al Gore's global warming crusade. It sounded great, it made perfect sense but there was just one problem, the facts didn't support it. It seems that the masses who were loudly calling for a global warming crisis have shifted their energies to oil. We are bombarded on a daily basis by those who tell us that we should be fearful. They spin good news into bad. The latest absurdity had Goldman Sachs telling investors that China's 18% price increase will actually increase demand! That's a new one. Just like global warming, the rationale for peak oil sounds great, it makes sense, but there is just one small problem, the facts don't support it.


Peak Oil, Greg and TonyW ARE WRONG!

Posted by Polies, 25th June 2008 5:51am

Re: 59

I would be interested to find out where you found the above info. Peak Oil is one of those things that I believe to be completely inaccurate, otherwise Car manufacturers would have started releasing more cars powered by other means. If it was true, would you think that we would see more of an infrastructure around the country for renewables such as E85?

I havent seen much change, thats for sure!

Posted by Paul Hanczuk, 25th June 2008 8:47am

Paul Hanczuk I second that, very true. I am beginning to feel its just a scare tactic to get people to buy oil at a higher cost hence making those that invested in it a bucket full of money.

Posted by Boo To Peak Oil, 25th June 2008 9:20am

Also, If there was a shortage of oil, would OPEC have agreed to increase output by 300,000 barrels starting in July to attempt to bring prices down and protect their long-term investments in the Developed western countries?

I think not. The Problem is with Speculators, people! and I reckon the bubble will burst very soon.

Posted by Paul Hanczuk, 25th June 2008 9:54am

Also, if Peak Oil was true, why would you see a sudden jump of prices of oil EXACTLY when it co-incides with the crash of the Housing and Financial market in the US?
http and a : and a // and a newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/commodities/28698/img/31+XWTI+bbc-big_thick-line+twelve_month.png

This be the value of US Oil commodities from August.

Now look at this.

http and a : and a // and a newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44611000/gif/_44611865_us_house_prices_gr466.gif

This be the House values in the US. pay particular attention to 2007-08. Notice a trend between the two?

Add 2 and 2 together before doom-mongering and scaring innocent people please.

Posted by Paul Hanczuk, 25th June 2008 10:41am

Polies, I have some issues with your post. You talk about oil shale resources, it requires massive amounts of energy to extract oil from shale, possibly about the same amount you'd get out as you put in and hence a completely pointless task. Also it requires water and there's not a lot of water available in Colorado!

And let's suppose that all those new discoveries of oil really add up to major amounts of oil. That does not change the fact that oil is a finite substance and that peak oil is coming, whether it was yesterday, today or 100 years from now. Even if we weren't at the peak the new sources of oil are far more tricky to exploit (and hence more expensive) than the ones we've used.

Posted by James, 25th June 2008 7:30pm

Whatever happened to Peak Oil, Greg and TonyW?

Finally woken up to the truth guys? ;-)

Posted by Polies, 25th June 2008 8:17pm

Come on face it. Fuel prices are never going to go back down significantly. A penny or two maybe, but back to the prices of 6 months ago? - Nahh never in a million years. We take these increases too easily, look at Potatoes a few years ago (Off the subject slightly but stay with it) Chip shops increased their prices but they did not come back down with the potato prices. Well this is just the same thing, we are being mugged by the men in suits. The answer? well I dont have one sorry, but I have ensured all my friends & family do not use any of the Major oil companies filling stations and only use supermarkets. Maybe its a futile exercise but if we all did it maybe someone (In a far too expensive suit would listen. Also the shell oil drivers strike did not affect me in the slightest as a consequence.

Posted by Mark H, 25th June 2008 11:20pm

Re: 64

Correct. However you should perhaps try looking at it from the other side of the coin, so to speak.

Any new oil finds found nowadays have the potential to keep us and the economy running long enough until either:

a) new technology is discovered that can either allow us to efficiently harness more power within batteries, or
b) a discovery that can safely and efficiently store enough Hydrogen that can power a vehicle for the same amount of mileage that present vehicles offer with Fossil Fuel.

I agree that new finds will become more and more scarce, and that Peak Oil will happen, its just a matter of when. But why are we, as a country punished NOW, for high taxation on commodities that are essential to the economy, while at the same time seeing no return from the high tax except for stupid pointless Quangos and mis-management of funds?

Peak Oil is a sleeping Giant at the moment, waiting to devour us all, however dont be perplexed into thinking that the present high prices are attributed to Peak Oil. How can Peak Oil doom-mongers explain.

The new Oil Field Finds detailed above and any future finds, with the exception of the Tar Sands in Canada, Venezuela and the Oil Shale in the States (presently uneconomical and environmently-unfriendly to make use of these) should see us as a planet through enough time in order to help us recover from our oil addiction to a society powered via renewable energy sources.

Posted by Paul Hanczuk, 26th June 2008 10:44am

Tesco start their national fuel promotion again on monday 30th june for about 6 weeks. This is where anyone spending over £50 in store will get 5p off every litre of fuel. This should help a little over the summer hols.

Posted by Alistair, 26th June 2008 12:03pm

If tesco can and they do every year this spend in store save on fuel offer then it says to me ?? yes we can afford to reduce the price of fuel" if you take a car with a fuel capicaty of 46 litres its a saving of £2.30 from empty,,,,,,,,, can only be used once & only for one vehicle,,,, not doing you any favours as you end up in most cases spending more instore than you would have to get the fuel discount,,,,,, no longer do tesco compete with other stations all the fuel stations charge the same price if one goes up so does the other its a form of price fixing

Posted by David Robinson, 27th June 2008 7:57am

post #59

"may be the world's biggest discovery in 30 years" MAY BE

"that could boost " COULD

"This find is rumored ....capable of producing as much as 130,000 barrels of oil equivalent" RUMORED ... one sixth of one percent of daily production.

"about 2 billion barrels" Sounds a lot but it's only just over THREE WEEKS global use.

post #60

"otherwise Car manufacturers would have started releasing more cars powered by other means" Such as?? they are working on it but there are no magic answers, technology cannot break laws of physics. If you don't believe that i can sell you a nice perpetual motion machine.


post #62

"300,000 barrels" About a third of one percent of daily production.


post #67

"Any new oil finds found nowadays " We are using four barrels for every one found, i.e. we are using up our "savings"

"harness more power within batteries" A battery is just a store of energy, you need to create the energy first. Batteries are improving but slowly and today the best can only go a few miles on a charge then need a long charge.

"store enough Hydrogen" You need to use more energy to create hydrogen than you get back from burning it. You can't run the world by using more energy to create less energy for very long.

"why are we, as a country punished NOW, for high taxation" Because the country is broke and cannot afford the increase in demand that would result if prices were reduced (would you use less if the price went down?). Look at our "balance" of trade, hint it's in defecit i.e. we have to borrow money from abroad to finance the country - think it can go on forever?


Note, today oil prices hit a new record of over $140/barrel. The chairman of Gazprom predicts oil at $250/barrel next year.

Posted by Tonyw, 27th June 2008 9:56am

In theory more and more people working from home is a great idea BUT for me it only causes more problems! I am a freelance PC repair guy, i have found a significant increase in work because of working at home (as compamies usually have a dedicated IT department or at least an IT guy for minor repars, but if your working from home this support is severed). I live in quite a rural area surrounded with half a dozen smallish towns which makes public transport impossible for work (also how can you pick up a customers PC then take it on the bus etc etc).

As a result my fuel cost have sky rocketed. In the past i would be called into a company and would repair several PC's at one location, then goto the next business etc etc, now it takes 10x as long to do the same amount of work as all the PC's are spread over a wide area, plus 40% minimum of all calls would usually have been fixed by the in-house IT guy, so now i'm getting called out even to change a printer cartridge!!! And as i said earlier travelling costs have gone through the roof!!! ho hum i suppose some people call it progress.

Dave.

Posted by Dave Goode, 27th June 2008 12:35pm

Re: 65

"Whatever happened to Peak Oil, Greg and TonyW?

Finally woken up to the truth guys? ;-) "

Ha ha very good. I know you have missed the cheery banter, but of late I have been more concerned with ensuring my own and local food security, getting rid of debt, arranging my life to minimise the effects of Peak Oil in general, and not missing you guys in the least.

Posted by Greg Brown, 28th June 2008 12:30pm

Wait, so those stating peak oil is a myth believe oil is INFINITE?

Wow, I don't even need to pull out charts to show up that flawed argument. I'm sure God has made bountiful supplies of everlasting oil for your SUV driving days in the distant future.

I hope you still play that tune when you're facing destitution because you thought unlimited cheap energy was somehow a realistic proposal. But hey, let's not argue with the oil companies. It's not like their livelihoods depend on peak oil being false, is it?

Posted by Kellerman, 28th June 2008 12:55pm

Oh, and reading that assorted list from Polies is comedy gold.

They found two billion barrels of oil in Iraq! We're saved!

Only the world using THIRTY BILLION annually means you've not even got a couple of months supply there. This would be hilarious if only it wasn't so indicative of the ignorance on the street regarding our energy use.

"But they'll make alternatives!"

Yes, let us all assume the very people we criticise for not having a clue in government are also of sufficient mental integrity to plan ahead by decades for an eventuality they have never entertained once in their lives.

"And the oil companies gouging us right now will save us with bountiful supplies of cheap oil again, you'll see."

Denial ain't just a river through Egypt.

Posted by Kellerman, 28th June 2008 1:06pm

When will we all realise?
No Government- this or any other- can affect the price of oil any more than Canute could turn back the waves.
HOWEVER they can vary the tax, but never will....a simple eqation for you;
Real price of petrol, about £1 a gallon.
Tax on petrol, about £4 a gallon.
Cost of staying in Iraq, about £2,500,000 per day.
Cost of staying in Afghanistan, about £1,500,000 per day.
Total= £4,000,000 per day.
Therefore, one million gallons of petrol a day= .... well, you work it out.
And this is on top of the £34billion defence budget, which is spent every year, no matter what! (Which might be what your road tax goes on? Who knows?)
This is why the public transport is overpriced and underinvested in... no Government for YEARS has wanted us to leave our cars at home and use it!
Imagine if we all did.... no cars on the road= approx £200 a year road tax, and roughly £2,000+ a year fuel tax lost! £2,500 per car!
Last question.... how many cars are there on Britains roads?
It would cost ANY Government BILLIONS!
And don't think it will be any better if Her Majesty's Opposition take over, THEY'RE the theiving lot who first introduced the fuel escalator years ago- if THEY had stayed in power, petrol would have been £5 a gallon some years ago ! !

Posted by Harlequin, 29th June 2008 12:26pm
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