Your Comments

I noticed this morning thatbird had $hit on my car.

Its the last time I take her out.

A man said to his wife lets go fishing.

Wife said "no thank you"

Man said, "look its oral, anal, or fishing"

Wife chose oral

After a few seconds she spits out and cries "that tastes like $hit"

"I know" said the man "the dog didn't want to go fishing either"

Bubba?

Adrian,

That is good, I will print that off and use it behind my bar if that is ok.

same time tomorrow night?

I still have plenty to say, but not enough time right now.

sorry but I am needed in the downstairs in the lounge,

later.

@600 - LOL - nice one!

I am reminding you of the term 'Peak Oil'; brace yourself as you'll be hearing it a lot more in the years to come. It's been a whispered term for many years, much like "global warming" was back in the 60's.

In 1956, geophysicist Dr. M. King Hubbert predicted that oil production in the USA would reach its peak around 1970 and then go into a state of decline. He also predicted that global oil production would peak around the late 90's/early 21st century. He plotted the increase, peak and decrease of oil production on a graph; and his theory is popularly known as Hubbert's Peak.

Dr Hubbert also flagged with the world the issue not only of declining oil production, but the increasing cost associated in extracting what oil remained after the "low hanging fruit" had been picked.

There is no doubt that the cost of oil production in recent times has been huge - not only in the exploration and production itself in financial terms; but also in terms of environmental damage caused. Added to that has been the huge military expense and associated human suffering caused through wars that have been pushed on the public by their governments as being issues of national safety rather than their true motivation - control of oil reserves. The war in Iraq is a classic example of that.

Dr Hubbert was ridiculed by many when he released his research; but his predictions appear to have come true. USA oil production did indeed go into rapid decline around 1971.

Fact: we are consuming more oil globally and the trend will continue

Fact: it is not a renewable resource in relation to our consumption levels

Fact: countries go to war over control of oil reserves

Fact: oil consumption has a negative impact on the environment

Fact: gas at the pump continues to, generally speaking, increase in price

Fact: many plastics and other trappings of the modern world are made from oil

Fact: the world is running out of easily sourced oil; i.e. production using current technology has peaked, and what oil is left will cost more to pull out of the ground using methods most likely to be even more unfriendly to the environment.

Paints a rather grim picture for our oil addicted society doesn't it? If we're willing to invade a country for oil, how much more aggressive will we be when supply really gets tight?

How does food get to your table? Do you grow it in your yard, or is it trucked in to your supermarket? How do you collect it; do you walk to the supermarket or drive? How do you get to work?

How many affordable alternative energy vehicles are now on the market?

When the Iraq war and other geo-political issues pushed the price of oil to record levels; people stopped buying SUV's. Within a couple of weeks of a drop in prices; they went back to buying them again. It just goes to show how little we learn. We had a taste of what really expensive petrol was like, yet as soon as the pressure was backed off a little; we went straight back to our previous oil-greedy ways.

We won't learn, oil will have to run out or become so horribly expensive that only few can use it to any degree. What will it cost? How much will it impact on the cost of other items? How many more people will have to die and how much more will our environment suffer while we squeeze out the last viable drop of oil that the planet has to offer?

These are important issues to think about - don't rely on governments to provide the answers to a world without oil as they've all been in denial for way too long. Yes, there are renewable/alternative energy programs in place; but given the major role that oil plays in our lives; permeating just about every aspect; whether these new, cleaner technologies can be rolled out before we hit the real crunch is another question.

The time is now to start thinking about and making changes to the way you live so your life is not so oil-centered. Remember that a lack of oil extends far beyond just not being able to drive your car - so many other products, services and industries are based on oil.

Start preparing for a life of austerity. NOW!

Find local employment. Reduce your debts. Reduce your fuel consumption. Grow your own vegetables or buy from local suppliers. Exercise regularly. Insulate your home. Help your family, friends and colleagues to understand the implications of Peak Oil.

PEAK OIL

You sound like my girlfriend with her mouth full.

gobble gobble gobble.

I can hear some thing but cant make it out...!

Personally, I consider this a sensible solution to allegations of rip off's etc., and the only way to cope with a fossil fuel energy descent.
Having had a quick scan of this blog I can see it may not be popular, but there you go.


The Oil Depletion Protocol As drafted by Dr. Colin J. Campbell*

WHEREAS the passage of history has recorded an increasing pace of change, such that the demand for energy has grown rapidly in parallel with the world population over the past two hundred years since the Industrial Revolution;

WHEREAS the energy supply required by the population has come mainly from coal and petroleum, such resources having been formed but rarely in the geological past and being inevitably subject to depletion;

WHEREAS oil provides ninety percent of transport fuel, is essential to trade, and plays a critical role in the agriculture needed to feed the expanding population;

WHEREAS oil is unevenly distributed on the Planet for well-understood geological reasons, with much being concentrated in five countries bordering the Persian Gulf;

WHEREAS all the major productive provinces of the World have been identified with the help of advanced technology and growing geological knowledge, it being now evident that discovery reached a peak in the 1960s, despite technological progress and a diligent search;

WHEREAS the past peak of discovery inevitably leads to a corresponding peak in production during the first decade of the 21st Century, assuming no radical decline in demand;

WHEREAS the onset of the decline of this critical resource affects all aspects of modern life, such having grave political and geopolitical implications;

WHEREAS it is expedient to plan an orderly transition to the new World environment of reduced energy supply, making early provisions to avoid the waste of energy, stimulate the entry of substitute energies, and extend the life of the remaining oil;

WHEREAS it is desirable to meet the challenges so arising in a co-operative and equitable manner, such to address related climate change concerns, economic and financial stability, and the threats of conflicts for access to critical resources.

NOW IT IS PROPOSED THAT
A convention of nations shall be called to consider the issue with a view to agreeing an Accord with the following objectives:
• to avoid profiteering from shortage, such that oil prices may remain in reasonable relationship with production cost;
• to allow poor countries to afford their imports;
• to avoid destabilizing financial flows arising from excessive oil prices;
• to encourage consumers to avoid waste;
• to stimulate the development of alternative energies.
Such an Accord shall have the following outline provisions:
• The world and every nation shall aim to reduce oil consumption by at least the world depletion rate.
• No country shall produce oil at above its present depletion rate.
• No country shall import at above the world depletion rate.
• The depletion rate is defined as annual production as a percent of what is left (reserves plus yet-to-find).
• The preceding provisions refer to regular conventional oil—which category excludes heavy oils with cut-off of 17.5 API, deepwater oil with a cut-off of 500 meters, polar oil, gas liquids from gas fields, tar sands, oil shale, oil from coal, biofuels such as ethanol, etc.
Detailed provisions shall cover the definition of the several categories of oil, exemptions and qualifications, and the scientific procedures for the estimation of Depletion Rate.
The signatory countries shall cooperate in providing information on their reserves, allowing full technical audit, such that the Depletion Rate may be accurately determined.
The signatory countries shall have the right to appeal their assessed Depletion Rate in the event of changed circumstances.

613
The expression is 'when you're in a hole, stop digging!'

The Oil Depletion Protocol has nothing whatsoever to do with:
"where the proof in the statement says we are not being over-taxed, over-charged and conned into believing it is for the good of the people?
Would you show me where it states we are not the highest fuel taxing country in the world?
can you show me where it states diesel is the worlds most expensive comodity?"

other than mechanisms in the economy:

"• to avoid profiteering from shortage, such that oil prices may remain in reasonable relationship with production cost;
• to allow poor countries to afford their imports;
• to avoid destabilizing financial flows arising from excessive oil prices;
• to encourage consumers to avoid waste;
• to stimulate the development of alternative energies."

I don't see you have produced any arguments to support your claims either:
"over-taxed, over-charged and conned into believing it is for the good of the people?" is purely subjective.

1) "Over taxed"? All nations raise taxes for the good of the wider society. It may be from fuel, from income, from purchases, from company profits, from local taxes and so on - nearly always combinations of these. It is impossible to state that one tax is too high without saying which other ones need to rise to compensate for the too high one being lowered.

2) "Over charged"? By who? Free markets set the price. Too high - we can't afford, so buy less, too low - we waste. The old chestnut about oil company profits simply doesn't stand analysis. Oil companies, whether state or shareholder owned, spend huge amounts extracting and refining oil. They then sell this into the market. The oil company doesn't set the price, the market does (same as a farmer selling potatoes - a poor harvest means higher prices because of scarcity, a glut may mean that prices are so low its not worth while the farmer even digging them up). The recent rise and fall of the barrel price reflects this perfectly. Huge demand coupled with supply (scarcity) issues over the last 12 months caused the price to rise greatly - this was caused by BUYERS not SELLERS. With the current financial crisis now upon the globe demand has (relatively) collapsed - and so has the price of oil.

3) "Conned into believing it is for the good of the people"? What is "it"? If you mean higher taxes to discourage use then we are only being "conned" if you believe less use is not a good thing. I think you'll find you're very much in a minority if you think that.

4) "The highest fuel taxing country in the world"? Same as point (1). Irrelevant whether we are or not. Its the totality of taxes that count.

5) Can you show me where it states diesel is the worlds most expensive comodity? (a) It isn't. and (b) why would it state it even if it were true? How is it relevant to anything in the protocol?

I think you are confusing many issues simply to try and support your "rip off" claim. Comparing UK to Europe, we have the 14th highest unleaded price and the 2nd highest Derv price. The disparity between unleaded and Derv is primarily due to the number of European countries that levy a lower Duty rate on Derv than on unleaded (plus the lack of UK Derv refining capacity).

There is certainly room for sensible debate as to how the current socio-economic problems should be tackled. In terms of the current headline action, I don't agree with it. I would have increased the single persons tax allowance (i.e. put money directly in the hands of everyone in work), left VAT as it is, raised Duty on unleaded fuel (leaving Derv as it is to (a) not add extra costs to distribution of goods at this time and (b) not make UK haulage even more uncompetitive against European competition (European rates need to be increased to align with UK rates).

Regarding what the tax income is spent on, the easy bit is to say 'less waste' and spend more on renewable energy, public transport infrastructure and so on but costing it and DOING it is another.

With regard to Abiotic Oil - I won't even start to say what I think about it, but I can assure you it won't make things better or even keep the status quo!

Sorry to say that whilst Peak Oil's posts may come across as highly irritating to some - the comments are basically sound.

RE 614

The expression is "A little learning is a dangerous thing"
Meaning.
A small amount of knowledge can cause people to think they are more expert than they really are.

Or how about "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure"
Meaning.
That it is better to try to avoid problems in the first place, rather than trying to fix them once they arise. (oil depletion which has been prophesied since 1971)

I have in no way tried to say what I have written is true, false, fact or theory.
(unlike some, Kellerman and jackson spring to mind for some reason)

I have not forced my way of thinking upon you.
It is what I believe. That simple, what I believe.
It is called conversation.
If your partner says we need more milk, do you ask for proof?
No, you just buy it. You do not have to agree, you just...... get it. Get it?

It's all about beliefs, just beliefs, nothing more nothing less.

I also believe in God, are you going to ask me for proof of His existence?

Now for more idiomatic expressions.

You are an average Joe who is away with the fairies. You are at your wit's end and at the end of the day you are not at the coalface, most probably at the bottom of the totem pole or all at sea.

You are at loggerheads and at odds with me, why would you at the drop of a hat be at other peoples throats even if peak oil is at full tilt?

You seem to be at a loose end, a loose cannon, be careful you do not fall asleep at the wheel or you may end up reaping what you sow.

Eunoia means 'beautiful thinking'. It's the shortest English word containing all five vowels.

Try it!!

Relax, unwind, do not preach.

Hello Steve M, 609.
Running the risk of making this post even longer, I have copied yours and will answer each question:

"With respect, have you read my blog no; 10424, or 580 on this blog?"
Yes.

"This is what I believe, I am not saying anybody is right or wrong (except people who ram things at me, and preach, not understanding that not everyone agrees with everyone.)"
That's fine, but isn't this blog more to do with facts than beliefs? I'm sure you'd agree that some things are fairly black and white? Things that are less balck and white require individuals to weigh and assess the evidence before coming up with a considered opinion.

"Myself, Adrian and others (even Bubba to an extent) see things from all angles and give their personal side to how they perceive their findings."
I haven't read every post but some seem to get rather overheated and opinionated - your included. I don't see more liberalism in your posts than any others. Doesn't everyone "see things from all angles and give their personal side"? See my point above. This doesn't in any way preclude the possibility that the "findings" arrived at (yours or others) may be wrong.

"J.W makes excellent reading, I agree with him from the:: "I am still one of the old school.....":: line.

I also own what I have 'worked for', I do not take handouts, I pay for private treatment for my family (before you play the NHS card). I drive a Discovery 2.5 TDi because it is a seven seater for my family, it is a diesel, low CO2 emissions, the mpg is far superior than petrol equivalents, all bulbs in my house are energy savers, I do not own a dishwasher (waste of electric and water), I holiday in this country so I am re-investing in British goods and jobs, I do not fly in planes, they have an immediate effect on destroying the ozone layer. Shall I go on?
I think I am doing my bit."
Sounds like good news!

"From your blog (10578):: "Anyone saying we should pay less tax should quantify the amount and say where the savings come from"::

"No-one is saying pay less tax, especially Adrian, our friends or myself. (we do question why pay 'more' tax)"
Sorry, there ARE a LOT of people saying pay less tax and you contradict yourself below - a 2p Duty reduction IS a tax cut!

"Why not just lower the duty on fuel by 2p and leave the VAT alone then everybody feels like they are better off, spends more and kick starts the economy."
How will non-drivers feel any better off? Presumably, with the 30p decrease in fuel prices we have seen the economy must be flying along? By the way, I don't believe the VAT reduction will have any effect either.

"::"The ripoff cry is never quantified or demonstrated."::
Explain why we pay more for fuel in this country than almost any other in the world?"
I think I asked the question first. Please quantify and demonstrate this "ripoff". "we pay more for fuel in this country than almost any other " is a statement (and an incorrect one - we have the fourteenth most expensive unleaded in Europe), not evidence of a "ripoff".

"If it is to reduce the intake of fossil fuel then it is a weak reason. India, Pakistan,and China (and most of the rest of Asia) use more oil than we do. They are still a growing area, becoming more and more dependant on fossil fuels. Why should we pay more for ours, making us use less, so they can use more?"
Again, no facts to substantiate your point. The broad position is that Western energy consumption per head is way ahead of that in the developing countries you mention. Your argument is simply that the developing countries shouldn't be able to enjoy (and squander) the benefits the West has had over the last 100 years? We're the lord of the Manor and they are our serfs? Commonsense says its a global problem - ensuring developing countries don't make the same mistakes as us is one approach, reducing consumption in the West is another.

"USA know all about 'peak oil' yet they price the cost of fuel to reflect the price of a barrel of oil. They do not tax the hell out of Americans to make them save fuel."
And look at the stupid cars they drive and the problems they had when their at-the-pump prices TRIPLED! Your point fully supports the rationale for higher taxation - rampant consumption otherwise. If "USA know all about 'peak oil'" AND fuel is cheap, why don't Americans buy small economical cars?

"I have noted a lot of folk expressing concern about immigrants earning an easy passage into this country, but to say this is the reason for oil shortages and fuel taxes is short-sighted and wrong."
I think 'bonkers' is the word your looking for.

John W (9122) hints at the immigrant side of perspectives by pointing to:: "But we were a proud nation"; Is this not saying British forces won the war? not immigrants?"
I have read post 9122 again and honestly don't have a clue what point you are making. The post doesn't even make an oblique reference to immigration. There are posts on this blog blaming immigrants for all sorts - even some really sad ones proclaiming that the BNP would sort it all out.

"::"Those who take on the job should be saluted":: ONLY if they have the confidence of the people who voted for them, alas, they do not."
That's your opinion.

"As you may be aware, I also swing towards the abiotic oil theory.
I have stated many times that I neither believe nor disbelieve, I along with Adrian and others keep a very open mind, but to say "all oil has peaked" is quite a statement. Our questions are simple, says who? how do they know? is this undisputed science or theoretical science? Hubbert gave a very strong argument looking at his beliefs, I neither agree nor disagree (we have covered this extensively before, along with some very heated arguments for and against)
Why are Russians now the foremost oil/gas producers in the world using a field that was 'proven' to house little or no oil/gas?
That is one example."
From what I've read on the blog the whole Abiotic Theory has been fairly comprehensively debunked and the questions you pose above, answered. I think the problem is you don't like answers.

"A specific party was placed in power by the people, for the people.
Now a high percentage of those voters, (along with the conservative and liberal voters and all the other parties) do not believe the government is in control."
That is Democracy, hardly news is it?

"A ratio of 10:1 expressing concern is a massive indication of how folks feel, I do not believe the Labour government would hold power if an election were called next spring. people have 'lost faith in the current regime'"
I assume you mean the vote on the other blog? Hardly massive in a country of 55m+ individuals and this is a blog on a website for people looking for cheap petrol and the question was loaded. I couldn't imagine a different result. Try going to a turkey farm and see if they vote for Christmas!

"It is for those reasons I maintain "WE ARE BEING RIPPED OFF"!!!!!!!!!"
Yes you keep maintaining that - but you keep failing to provide any evidence of it.

"I am not trying to convert you or anyone, I am simply doing what this blog was intended for, airing my views."
Judging by the amount of posts you make in response to others that is possibly disingenuous.

I wasn't intending to get into a debate when I posted, I merely wanted to point out that there were some contributors with a more mature, thoughtful view - and not from a position of priviledge. They exhibted selflessness rather than the all pervading selfishness mainly seen in these blogs.

Hi Steve M: 616
Sorry if I've touched a raw nerve - the when in a hole, stop digging jibe was only lighthearted!

I've had a look back in the blog (should have done so first!) and can see this likely to go only one way so, as the expression goes 'I'm out of here!'

But I do want to say that you are stifling debate (or rather, saying it shouldn't happen). Just stating your "beliefs" is not having a "conversation" (at least not on the blogs I visit) - ironically, that IS preaching. If that was all you wanted to do then surely you make one post - stating your beliefs - and that's it?

Anyway, I don't profess to understand the rest of your post (OK, I'll be judgemental - it's a ramble). Suffice to say I find your antipathy to intelligent debate coupled with your invites to (cronies?) - post 617 - enough of a turn off to join the people you mention (and others), who were able to string an argument together, and leave you to it.
All the best.
Colin.

I have wondered on to these pages by accident
It is a case of us and them with the fencers in between
jokes were good, comments ranged from hilarious to unbelievable
each to their own
I might pop in at eight, I saw no indication of a closed shop, Colin B
If I were a turkey I would vote for Xmas it is better than sitting in a shed getting fat, Petal.

conversation - the use of speech for informal exchange of views or ideas or information etc. A lively or heated interchange of ideas and opinions.
An exchange of ideas via conversation. Social exchange, especially of opinions, attitudes, etc.
Conversation in a situation where feelings can be expressed.

Ring any bells Colin B?

Hi Adrian,
and ANYBODY who would like to CONVERSE in whatever takes their fancy.

I thought we were conversing, but I was wrong.

I am enough of an artist to draw freely upon my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world.
(Albert Einstein)

Wise words indeed.

If it was good enough for Albert Einstein to free his mind, then it is certainly good enough for me!

To Colin B, Petal and friends, free your own imagination and leave mine alone, if you do not like what I write or agree with what I believe then you can always 'change the channel'.
I have not challenged you.

Colin B states;
"But I do want to say that you are stifling debate (or rather, saying it shouldn't happen). Just stating your "beliefs" is not having a "conversation" (at least not on the blogs I visit) - ironically, that IS preaching. If that was all you wanted to do then surely you make one post - stating your beliefs - and that's it?"

Colin B
If I am not stifling debates then why leave at a sensitive time?

How many blogs have you submitted regarding the same theme?

Petal, you 'believe' I do not like answers, then perhaps no-one has answered me yet with a believable reason why we pay so much tax on fuel. And people like you say 'thank you'.

Oh, and if this isn't a face saving admission of peak oil, what is?

'The optimistic view of the world's oil resource was also given support by BP's chief economist, Peter Davies, who dismissed theories of "Peak Oil" as fallacious. Instead, he gave warning that world oil production would peak as demand weakened, because of political constraints and by government efforts to increase taxation by citing as yet unproven theories about greenhouse gas emissions.'

Adrian

Did you have a good day with the grandchildren?

You are very lucky, enjoy every moment.

Hello to one and all

My god, the first three blogs are well informed and all have merit
in a game of football peak oil is losing 2-1

I understand the concept of peak oil, but that implies that we have already reached world sucking up production
There are oil fields being discovered but with the present climate they do not have capacity to cope with demand
Should oil production drop so low then it becomes more expensive to extract than to pay the blokes their wages and we still line the executive pockets
Therefore price at the pump goes higher
Should oil production increase then we do reach the end of the line
There is not enough work to employ most of the workers so the dole queue grows ever longer but the executives continue to line their Versacci suit pockets
Therefore price at the pump goes higher

10 years from now we will still be having the same discussions but maybe the shift will be far greater in the peak oil direction

Sorry to sound pessimistic but thats how it is

630 Steve
Yep brilliant time with 2 grandkids, I was blessed (or is it cursed) with 2 daughters and now have 2 grandsons who know exactly which strings to pull.
People tell me boys are easier but having had experience of both I have to confess that I wished I'd had 2 dogs instead.
Rather quiet tonight I thought there'd be more of us in but maybe later.
Not giving too much away what part of Birmingham are you in Steve? N,S,E,W.

RE 633 haha

Who is David Brent ?
No appologies for pi$$ing on your bonfire but what are you conversing about?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Adrian,

Glad you had a good time with the grandchildren, they keep you young. (theoretically)

I am in South Birmingham, right on the Halesowen border. Nice area.
We went to the German markets in the city centre the other night (I was called into question about that)
They are the biggest outside of Berlin.
If you are in or near Birmingham before Christmas they are well worth a look.

636 Steve
Theres a good chance of us visiting the Bullring shopping centre before Christmas so will look up the German markets whilst there.
Where is everybody? they've deserted us I was hoping for some lively debate and all we've had from them is quite mild/tame, no Bubba no BTK no Brummie (though Brummies' sister is quite accomodating) hardly anyone.
I've got old spice on do you think it's keeping them away?It works well on the flies, just hope the production of old spice doesn't peak.
In Cardiff we have "winter wonderland" ice skating, ferris wheel etc but it's
too bleeping cold for me. It must take the girls longer to get ready to go out now with those lovely short skirts (they've got a bit more hair to brush you see)but I'm not complaining I've still got my memories and 10 out of 10 from Brummies sister.

Converse on any subject then? OK, how about this. Transition Towns. You all seem to think things are turning to sh*t in this country. Turns out you are right.

We have blown our oil revenues, which are now in severe decline to to the 1999 peak in the North Sea, the global financial system is in meltdown and that is nowhere near over and will become sooo much worse, we face severe energy disruptions in the near future (inadequate electricity generation due to older nuclear plants due to close and no replacements on the way ready in anywhere near enough time) plus the oil depletion issue, oh chuck in overpopulation and climate change for good measure.

Sh*tstorm supreme, what a recipe!

So, are you all going to sit there and let Government deal with it, or do something about it? Want a solution? Well, no one has one but this is the best that I have come across, and you don't need politicians to do it.

Is that a good thing? I believe so and this is why - Government is on a default setting of managing ongoing economic growth, this is not a realistic vision, what we need to manage is economic contraction, Government is incapable of managing that, can't even envision it in fact.

It's up to us to take charge, money where the mouth is time. Start a transition iniatiative if you don't like the way things are, or see the possibility of a grim future.

The following is copied and pasted and no apologies for that, I would simply put a link in but you can't do that here, to find out more in detail then google transition towns uk, should come top of the page in a wikipedia.
Do please try and get over the peak oil thing, that is a symptom of living beyond our means, but it isn't the whole picture.

'What is a Transition Town (or village / city / forest / island)?

It all starts off when a small collection of motivated individuals within a community come together with a shared concern: how can our community respond to the challenges, and opportunities, of Peak Oil and Climate Change?

They begin by forming an initiating group and then adopt the Transition Model with the intention of engaging a significant proportion of the people in their community to kick off a Transition Initiative.

A Transition Initiative is a community working together to look Peak Oil and Climate Change squarely in the eye and address this BIG question:

"for all those aspects of life that this community needs in order to sustain itself and thrive, how do we significantly increase resilience (to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil) and drastically reduce carbon emissions (to mitigate the effects of Climate Change)?"
After going through a comprehensive and creative process of:

awareness raising around peak oil, climate change and the need to undertake a community lead process to rebuild resilience and reduce carbon
connecting with existing groups in the community
building bridges to local government
connecting with other transition initiatives
forming groups to look at all the key areas of life (food, energy, transport, health, heart & soul, economics & livelihoods, etc)
kicking off projects aimed at building people's understanding of resilience and carbon issues and community engagement
eventually launching a community defined, community implemented "Energy Descent Action Plan" over a 15 to 20 year timescale
This results in a coordinated range of projects across all these areas of life that strives to rebuild the resilience we've lost as a result of cheap oil and reduce the community's carbon emissions drastically.

The community also recognises two crucial points:

that we used immense amounts of creativity, ingenuity and adaptability on the way up the energy upslope, and that there's no reason for us not to do the same on the downslope
if we collectively plan and act early enough there's every likelihood that we can create a way of living that's significantly more connected, more vibrant and more in touch with our environment than the oil-addicted treadmill that we find ourselves on today.
If you want to find out more, check out the other menu items on the left hand site of the page.


Cheerful disclaimer!
Just in case you were under the impression that Transition is a process defined by people who have all the answers, you need to be aware of a key fact.

We truly don't know if this will work. Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale.

What we are convinced of is this:

if we wait for the governments, it'll be too little, too late
if we act as individuals, it'll be too little
but if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just in time.'

636
My bonfire is fine - best check your shoes!

David Brent - useless manager from tv series The Office. Did appraisals where he quoted - by sneaking looks at a piece of paper beneath his desk - the usual kind a sage/management bull quotes e.g. the longest journey starts with a single step etc.

Sorry, I guess your reply means you weren't joking!

Think I got hold of the wrong end of the stick.

Morning all.

RE 642 haha

It was meant tongue in cheek although I really do not know who Danid Brent is, or what his role is in whatever show he is a part of.
Really, no offence meant or received.
Its just a laugh.

RE 643

That was NOT me who wrote that.
I feel a great pity for the w4nker who did though, a deep sorrow for him (or her) (that poses another problem, can women be w4nkers?).

Is this a ploy by oil companies to artificially inflate prices and heap more misery on consumers?

International oil companies, concerned over falling crude may make new exploration projects unprofitable, are curtailing investment plans and slowing projects. That may affect supply when demand does recover.

Producers such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc are cutting back plans to develop deposits like Canadian oil sands. Shell indefinitely postponed the second-phase expansion of its Athabasca project because of rising construction costs. Shell, based in The Hague, also delayed seeking regulatory approval for Carmon Creek. Higher cost plans require $80-a-barrel oil to be profitable, according to Merrill Lynch.

story: Anthony DiPaola in Dubai at adipaola@bloomberg.net. Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: December 1, 2008 10:46 EST

The very same experts that tell us peak oil has been reached/passed are now saying "use more oil to bring up the price of a barrel so we can explore new fields"

Ali al-Naimi, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest exporter and its de facto leader, said in Cairo that $75 a barrel oil represents a "fair price" needed to support investment in new fields. The group's next meeting is in Oran, Algeria, on Dec. 17.

So there you have it, lower oil prices means no investment in new fields.

I know from reports oil is depleting, and a considerable amount of money needs to be spent exploring and implementing alternative ways to replace the dependence on oil, but despite all the smart ar$e comments being passed around, not one person has offered an alternative.

Telling us we should grow potatoes and catch a bus will not replace fossil fuels.

Interesting point sasquatch (is that a type of pumpkin). It might make a small amount of difference...however, the expense involved would be fairly large. When prices were ridiculous (£1.10+) I decided to see what I could do to increase the fuel economy of my car by doing the following:-

1. Leaving for work 10-15 minutes earlier to reduce queing
2. Spending the 5 miles of my journey on the motorway cruising at 60 instead of 70
3. Freewheeling up to junctions, traffic lights etc. to reduce braking and therefore accelerating
4. Hurling my car round corners (for above reasons - definitely the most fun part)

By doing all this, my journey time decreased plus my average fuel economy went from 34 mpg (in my Volvo V50 T5) to 42 mpg - that's a >20% increase

I guess my ongoing message (if I have one) is that there is probably a lot more we can do ourselves to reduce our fuel bills. Google hypermiling for more info; most of it is fairly obvious, yet still very effective.

that was probably the nerdiest post I've ever written, many apologies.

RE 647, ITA

That is quite an assumption regarding no alternatives, that's it then, we are doomed, doomed I say. Don't panic.

Seriously though, I really could not see neighbours in my area agreeing to take, with respect, drastic measures.

So many questions, and I am not a NIMBY, but could this resort back to the days when dear olde Englande was split into several areas (each to their own) and eventually warring between each other?
I do see pluses and minuses in the article, so as usual I remain open minded.

Hello Bubba.

RE 648

Bubba,

Just been to the site, hypermilling.

Very interesting reading. And crazy, zany, nerdy, funny and mad all come to mind.

If I take my children to school, they always compare me to mommy, Apparently I'm a Sunday driver.
Guess what, not anymore.
I am a HYPERMILLER.

Re 653

The best places to look are the main Transition town website and the individual towns that have set their own sites up, google 'transition towns uk', loads come up.
It's not as formal as you are thinking.

655 Steve and all
I too have been looking at the transitional town concept and it does seem in principle a sound idea and merits closer consideration from us.
We in camp A are nothing if not quite open minded and we don't mind others'
views as long as we can remain objective by them.
Transitional towns could cynically be envisaged as "divided we stand united we fall". I don't subscribe to that belief however and community spirit might be enhanced with these type of towns.
Camp B will no doubt stand to attention and claim that this is what they've been saying all along (find local employment, grow your own etc)but I don't accept that this was the message they were trying to get across.
We are I think obliged to investigate this movement in greater detail and reserve judgement for the present moment.
Time will tell whether camp A or camp B were going in the right direction or whether either camp was in fact in the right forrest let alone at the right tree.
By the way diesel down here 102.9 & petrol 89.9.

Off topic, but then again so are 90% of the blogs.

Following complaints made to the IRB about the All Blacks being allowed to motivate themselves by performing the 'Haka' before their games, other nations were asked to suggest pre-match rituals of their own. The IRB Rugby World Cup 2009 Organising Committee has now agreed to the following pre-match displays:

a.. The England team will chat about the weather, wave hankies in the air, attach bells to their ankles and dance around like nancy-boys before moaning about how they invented the game and gave it to the world, and how it's not fair that everyone still thinks New Zealand are the best team in the world.

b.. The Scotland team will chant 'You lookin' at me Jimmy?" before smashing an Iron Bru bottle over their opponents' heads.

c.. The Ireland team will split into two, with the Southern half performing a Riverdance, while the Northerners march the Traditional route from their dressing room to the pitch, via their opponents dressing room.

d.. With regret, unfortunately the Committee were unable to accept the Welsh suggestion following strong representations from the RSPCA and the Lamb Marketing Board..

e.. Argentina will unexpectedly invade a small part of opposition territory, claim it as their own "Las In-Goals-Areas" and then be forcibly removed by the match stewards.

f.. Two members of the South African team will claim to be more important than the other 13 whom they will imprison between the posts whilst they claim the rest of the pitch for themselves.

g.. The Americans will not attend until almost full time. In future years they will amend the records to show that they were in fact the most important team in the tournament and Hollywood will make a film called 'Saving No.8 Lyle'.

h.. Five of the Canadian team will sing La Marseillaise and hold the rest of the team to ransom.

i.. The Italian team will arrive in Armani gear, sexually harass the female stewards and then run away.

j.. The Spanish will sneak into the other half of the pitch, mow it and then claim that it was all in line with European "grass quotas". They will then curl up under the posts and have a kip until half time, when their appeal for compensation against the UK Government will be heard.

k.. The Japanese will attempt to strengthen their team by offering good salaries to the key opposition players and then run around the pitch at high speed in a highly efficient manner before buying the ground (with subsidy from the UK Government).

l.. The French will declare they have new scientific evidence that the opposition are in fact all mad. They will then park lorries across the halfway line, let sheep loose in the opposition half (much to the delight of the Welsh) and burn the officials.

m.. The Australians will have a barbie before negotiating lucrative singing and TV contracts in the UK. They will then invite all their mates to come and live with them in Shepherds Bush.

Anyone for tennis?

656
"We in camp A are nothing if not quite open minded and we don't mind others'
views as long as we can remain objective by them."

657
"There is an open invitation to pop to the pub, here on Friday from 8:00pm.
ALL WELCOME, whichever way you hang."

Gosh, that's real big of you both! Since when have your permission and approval been required?

Hmm Petal which one are you now? Jackson, Kellerman or Greg Brown himself.
Or are they just pulling your strings? or working you with their feet?
I'm an infrequent visitor to these blogs so can spot a masquerade a mile off.
At present I neither support camp a or camp b but to all those afeared to stick to their own names you don't deserve blog time.

RE 660 Petal

Whoa there, slow down, back off an inch.

Fiesty.

"There is an open invitation to pop to the pub, here on Friday from 8:00pm.
ALL WELCOME, whichever way you hang."

This is just so we can all be 'on air' at the same time.
shoot the $hit, loosen the jaw, have a conflab, chill.

RE 659, Bandidoz,

how are you?

The bigger issue is not just oil but global warming, this is something we cannot change, no matter how much we stop burning fossil fuel in this country, the amount yet to be burned in developing countries in Asia will dwarf ours within a few years.

RE 662, Richard

You have made a connection that Adrian, myself and others from both camps were probably thinking but coupling blog 660 with 661 you may have a valid point.

Petal is either the puppet or the puppeteer.

Abbadon, Angra Mainyu, Devil, Asmodai, Beelzebub, Lucifer, Belial, and Iblis.
Kellerman, jackson, Learjet, Realist, Petal.

I go by many names.

THIS BLOG IS MINE

666

NUMBER OF THE BEAST

RE Repetitive peak oil,

"Fact: we are consuming more oil globally and the trend will continue"
::Not quite true at the moment, oil bosses are worried as barrelled oil may drop to $30, forcing many fields to close.

"Fact: it is not a renewable resource in relation to our consumption levels
:: Not true, it is 'not a renewable source at all', whatever the consumption levels. (unless you are referring to slow abiotic oil (then welcome to camp 'A'))

Fact: countries go to war over control of oil reserves::
And women (Troy) and WMD and to prevent genocide.

Fact: oil consumption has a negative impact on the environment
True

Fact: gas at the pump continues to, generally speaking, increase in price
Generally true in the UK and South Africa

Fact: many plastics and other trappings of the modern world are made from oil
True

Fact: the world is running out of easily sourced oil; i.e. production using current technology has peaked, and what oil is left will cost more to pull out of the ground using methods most likely to be even more unfriendly to the environment.
Partially true, more advanced methods are available if only the oil companies lowered their profit margins and invested more in finding and extraction.

Just found this (couldn't sleep)

By Clara Nwachukwu
Published: Wednesday, 3 Dec 2008
It is uncertain that Nigeria will be able to meet its oil revenue target for 2009, in view of the proposed plan by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to further reduce output to shore up falling prices.

At the current production projections of 2.292million barrels per day, the country is expected to earn $103.14m per day from the export of crude, and $37.646bn at the end of the year, if prices stay at the $45 benchmark.

Besides, with the Niger Delta crisis still unresolved, more producing fields may be shut down, which will further reduce output capacity.

There are also fears that oil prices may drop further below $45 with some analysts already predicting a low of up to $30.
(**were these experts predicting $200 back in June?**)

Although available statistics indicate that as at the end of the third quarter, the country's production increased to two million bpd, up from 1.95million bpd in August, which may have raised government's hope of increased production capacity.

But with the last OPEC output cuts of 1.5million bpd, Nigeria's crude export reduced by 113,000bpd, thus keeping the daily output at 1.8million bpd.

The figure will be lower if OPEC makes good its threat to reduce output even more than the last cuts to shore up falling oil prices at the international market.

A global economic slowdown has tipped a growing number of countries into recession, causing sharp falls in demand for oil, especially among the consuming nations.

As a result, oil prices have tumbled 66 per cent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, as the United States, Europe and Japan face their first simultaneous recession since World War II.

In view of the tumbling oil prices, analysts have urged the Federal Government to review the budget benchmark lower to $45/bbl, and increase efforts to diversify the economy.

Oil prices fell to $48.75/bbl at the New York Merchantile Exchange, while the Brent similar to Nigeria's sweet crude fell to $47.57/bbl.

Nigeria depends largely on oil sales for revenues, which account for more than 90 per cent of its foreign exchange earnings and 80 per cent of its total income.

In spite of fears, the 2009 budget is projected with a deficit of N1tn, which will impact negatively on the expected growth.

Thoughts?

PS, re 666 (its mine)

What annoys me its the gap between diesel and petrol. Years ago diesel was cheaper than petrol. Now they say its more expensive to produce. Rubbish its because you get more for your money and diesel drivers are being ripped off because they get better mpg. There is a 15p difference in the two something should be done.