Your Comments

you say that the price of fuel is back to £1 not in my area the gready garages in my area droped as little a 1p to bring it down to £103 . where as in my brothers area it has droped to a £1 . we both live the same distance from london one in essex the other in surrey. now how can this be wright, i know its only 3p but it all ads up in the end.

I love you Marc !!!!!!!!!!!!

The Independent, Monday 3rd August:

The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.

Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.

In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years - at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.

But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.

In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil - mostly in the Middle East - would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.

"One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day," Dr Birol said. "The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously," he said.

"The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future," he said.

There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.

The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.

"If we see a tightness of the markets, people in the street will see it in terms of higher prices, much higher than we see now. It will have an impact on the economy, definitely, especially if we see this tightness in the markets in the next few years," Dr Birol said.

"It will be especially important because the global economy will still be very fragile, very vulnerable. Many people think there will be a recovery in a few years' time but it will be a slow recovery and a fragile recovery and we will have the risk that the recovery will be strangled with higher oil prices," he told The Independent.

In its first-ever assessment of the world's major oil fields, the IEA concluded that the global energy system was at a crossroads and that consumption of oil was "patently unsustainable", with expected demand far outstripping supply.

Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.

In most fields, oil production has now peaked, which means that other sources of supply have to be found to meet existing demand.

Even if demand remained steady, the world would have to find the equivalent of four Saudi Arabias to maintain production, and six Saudi Arabias if it is to keep up with the expected increase in demand between now and 2030, Dr Birol said.

"It's a big challenge in terms of the geology, in terms of the investment and in terms of the geopolitics. So this is a big risk and it's mainly because of the rates of the declining oil fields," he said.

"Many governments now are more and more aware that at least the day of cheap and easy oil is over... [however] I'm not very optimistic about governments being aware of the difficulties we may face in the oil supply," he said.

Environmentalists fear that as supplies of conventional oil run out, governments will be forced to exploit even dirtier alternatives, such as the massive reserves of tar sands in Alberta, Canada, which would be immensely damaging to the environment because of the amount of energy needed to recover a barrel of tar-sand oil compared to the energy needed to collect the same amount of crude oil.

"Just because oil is running out faster than we have collectively assumed, does not mean the pressure is off on climate change," said Jeremy Leggett, a former oil-industry consultant and now a green entrepreneur with Solar Century.

"Shell and others want to turn to tar, and extract oil from coal. But these are very carbon-intensive processes, and will deepen the climate problem," Dr Leggett said.

"What we need to do is accelerate the mobilisation of renewables, energy efficiency and alternative transport.

"We have to do this for global warming reasons anyway, but the imminent energy crisis redoubles the imperative," he said.

Oil: An unclear future

*Why is oil so important as an energy source?

Crude oil has been critical for economic development and the smooth functioning of almost every aspect of society. Agriculture and food production is heavily dependent on oil for fuel and fertilisers. In the US, for instance, it takes the direct and indirect use of about six barrels of oil to raise one beef steer. It is the basis of most transport systems. Oil is also crucial to the drugs and chemicals industries and is a strategic asset for the military.

*How are oil reserves estimated?

The amount of oil recoverable is always going to be an assessment subject to the vagaries of economics - which determines the price of the oil and whether it is worth the costs of pumping it out -and technology, which determines how easy it is to discover and recover. Probable reserves have a better than 50 per cent chance of getting oil out. Possible reserves have less than 50 per cent chance.

*Why is there such disagreement over oil reserves?

All numbers tend to be informed estimates. Different experts make different assumptions so it is under- standable that they can come to different conclusions. Some countries see the size of their oilfields as a national security issue and do not want to provide accurate information. Another problem concerns how fast oil production is declining in fields that are past their peak production. The rate of decline can vary from field to field and this affects calculations on the size of the reserves. A further factor is the expected size of future demand for oil.

*What is "peak oil" and when will it be reached?

This is the point when the maximum rate at which oil is extracted reaches a peak because of technical and geological constraints, with global production going into decline from then on. The UK Government, along with many other governments, has believed that peak oil will not occur until well into the 21st Century, at least not until after 2030. The International Energy Agency believes peak oil will come perhaps by 2020. But it also believes that we are heading for an even earlier "oil crunch" because demand after 2010 is likely to exceed dwindling supplies.

*With global warming, why should we be worried about peak oil?

There are large reserves of non-conventional oil, such as the tar sands of Canada. But this oil is dirty and will produce vast amounts of carbon dioxide which will make a nonsense of any climate change agreement. Another problem concerns how fast oil production is declining in fields that are past their peak production. The rate of decline can vary from field to field and this affects calculations on the size of the reserves. If we are not adequately prepared for peak oil, global warming could become far worse than expected.

Steve Connor, Science Editor

hi all
The pound (£) has gained well against the dollar (oil bought in dollars therefore more dollars per pound) and what do Tesco do??????????????
RAISE the price of their sub standard diesel though not their petrol.
Unbelievable!!!!!!!!!!

Re 83,
another convert to better quality fuel from independents over the supermarket bought stuff.
It's a pity the "Mythbusters" t,v programme wasn't based in U.K perhaps then we'd have conclusive proof of what many on these blogs have been reporting.
I've checked back and found one Adrian John Bell to be the first person to point this out.
Adrian John Bell for Prime Minister & Steve M for chancellor.
G. Brown for janitor.
In case anybody has forgotten in 27 days time ANOTHER 2 pence will be added to fuel duty and as we were prepared to pay in excess of £1.30 litre last summer the government know that we'll be falling over ourselves with glee to pay just 2p more then.

@86

at $150 a barrell prices were not 1.06, try 1.19 to be nearer the mark.
You are paying 1.06 because at today price your garage is making somewere around 3ppl gross margin. presume that its an efficient garage and its costs might be around 2ppl, more if it isnt. so 50p profit from your £50 fillup, not bad i suppose a 1% profit margin.. so yeah....fleecing garages as someone posted high up.

well ive just brought a car that runs on lpg and im paying 0.49p a litre at my local i love it :)

This is a new one. Diesel is now cheaper than petrol in Hop Oast in Horsham.

I purchased a car so I have my own space and listen to what I like music wise not to have people smoking and making conversation in which I'm not interested in.

Look! the upshot of this is simple, the people that control the price of oil, petrol, diesel and gas are people that are paid substantial salaries and are therefore unaffected by the price increase! Why should they be bothered if the price of petrol increases by 3p per litre, they probably claim it back on expenses anyway. Unfortunately until we have someone in govenrnment that is concerned about the welfare of the average wage earner we will get nowhere. This Country has gone to the dogs, we are screwed for everything, we're in a recession where people are going bankrupt and can't afford the basic essentials and yet the government help us by increasing the price of everything. We need a general election and we need to listen to what the other parties have to say before we vote. and most importantly we need to vote for the right party and not just because they are the party we always vote for.

re. 95

Well said mate, I agree 100%

try my 166 Litre tank , now works out at £175.79 a tank full :(

not moaning though as its a 6.8litre petrol driven SUV. that has taken the place of two other cars to run our large family around.

but what i dont understand is a few years back there was uproar about the rising prices and i think that was round about the 80p a litre .....
what are we the so called British people saying now ,nothing , because the law seems to work one way. try and do something about it , and you'll get arrested.

cant wait till my family and i can afford to emmigrate from this country of taxation

When are we going to do something about the horrific price of fuel
Iain

Hello 95 your comment about voting for another party they all say what they are going to do but when they are in power it all goes by the board the truth is the are all in it for there selves,remember Labour at the beginning of the year they said we are looking into the price of fuel what did they do NOTHING

Hi,

Diesel is holding steady at £1.04 ltr in Birmingham.

Reading back through the most recent posts there seems to be an air of acceptance regarding higher fuel prices.

Are we all going soft?

Wait until the next duty rise followed by increased VAT and watch these pages smoke with people complaining about how it costs £3 more to get to work each week.

Where are these people now? Probably in Tescos moaning about the price of baked beans while jostling their way to the front of the queue using a fair share of elbows and walking sticks while exclaiming they are in a rush for the shuttle bus and need to keep their GP appointment as they have bladder problems.

Did I go off track a bit there? Oops.

*To A J Bell. Hope you are well.*

Hi,

Big HELLO to Adrian.

It's good to hear from you my friend.

Lets get the $hit out the way first and I will bring you up to speed.
The pub is no more. My wife and I decided to call it a day. The pub is still a going concern but we have moved back into our own house.
We had many enjoyable years in the trade. My wife is now manager of a kitchen in a private establishment.
I have been diagnosed with a cerebral disorder caused by a motorbike accident some years ago (Oh yes. I am officially crazy!!)

I must agree with you Adrian, the pages have become barren and a lot of the old bloggers from both sides are rather quiet.

The 'new' news concerning the oil finds off the coast of Mexico were thrown around on here around 10 months ago. Maybe we knew something they* didn't.

Perhaps we have exhausted all angles except to say "WE ARE BEING RIPPED OFF"

Best regards Adrian. Keep in touch. Maybe we can come up with something to stir the hornets nest and bring some of the 'old uns' out of retirement.


*they = oil barrons and the worlds media.

What go's around, comes around.

A TESCO petrol station was swamped with motorists after a malfunctioning pump began selling petrol for just 40 pence a litre - for nearly a WEEK, it emerged today.

I don't feel one bit sorry for them.

Re 108 & 109.

Even at 40p per litre double points and 5p per litre off I still wouldn't buy it
even if I was driving.
It might be useful for getting a bonfire started November 5th though.
Steve M how are you my friend? Come and live in Wales.The rest would do you a power of good and if you tasted the "Brains" beer here in Cardiff you might want to run a pub again.

Hi,

Take a few minutes to read this.

Abiotic Oil?
Tuesday, 28. July 2009, 07:19:35

geology, mantle, oil and gas

There is widespread evidence that petroleum originates from biological processes. Whether hydrocarbons (oil and gas) can also be produced from abiogenic precursor molecules under the high-pressure, high-temperature conditions characteristic of the upper mantle remains a disputed question.

A hypothesis that oil can be created by non-biological mechanisms originated in Russian and Ukrainian scientific circles in the 1950s. Put briefly, it proposed that petroleum forms deep in the Earth's mantle under extremely high pressure and temperature through a reaction between carbonates, iron oxides and water. This process goes on continuously, and the petroleum migrates upwards through the lithosphere. At issue is the formation of complex hydrocarbons. There has never been any doubt that simple hydrocarbons such as methane can be formed by inorganic processes.

If true it was speculated it might be possible to find oil deep under the Siljan Impact Crater (Sweden), and they drilled here in the 1980's and 1990's, among other things in the hope to find oil. The hypothesis went that (inorganic) methane (gas) migrates upwards from the mantle and transforms into oil in the upper crust in igneous rocks (like granite). The Siljan ring is a crater of granitic rocks overlain by soil formed by a large meteorite impact 360 million years ago. The impact was postulated to have created fractures at great depth through which gas and oil would have been able to migrate. Although a little bit of oil was found, the drilling was more or less a failure - as far as oil and gas is concerned. Many scientists (though not everybody) thought that that was the final end of the abiotic oil story.

Apparently the dream has been awakened again.


As I said Scientists have debated for years whether some of our oil and gas (hydrocarbons) could also have been created deeper in the Earth and formed without organic matter. Now for the first time, according to a study published in the July 26, advanced on-line issue of Nature Geoscience, scientists have found that ethane and heavier hydrocarbons can be synthesised under the pressure-temperature conditions of the upper mantle —the layer of Earth under the crust and on top of the core

Using a diamond anvil cell and a laser heat source, scientists first subjected methane to pressures exceeding 20 thousand times the atmospheric pressure at sea level and temperatures ranging from 704°C to over 1 227 °C. These conditions mimic those found 65 to 150 km deep inside the Earth. The methane reacted and formed ethane, propane, butane, molecular hydrogen, and graphite. The scientists then subjected ethane to the same conditions and it produced methane. The transformations suggest heavier hydrocarbons could exist deep down. The reversibility implies that the synthesis of saturated hydrocarbons is thermodynamically controlled and does not require organic matter.

The results from the study seem to support the suggestion that hydrocarbons heavier than methane can be produced by abiogenic processes in the upper mantle.

Reference:
Kolesnikov et al.
Methane-derived hydrocarbons produced under upper-mantle conditions
Nature Geoscience
Published online: 26 July 2009
doi:10.1038/ngeo591
***********************

Interesting reading.

If it is true then all outdated teachings of the oil process will have to be re-thought.

All the old thinkers will be bought kicking and screaming into the 21st century.

Perhaps Tescos are leading the way already and charging at what could be the true value of £0.40 pl.

Even if oil were abiotic our government would use the 'enviromentally unfriendly petrol fumes' as an excuse to raise taxes and duty to unprecedented heights to 'save the planet' which is IMO going through a natural occurance that has been proven to have happened many times before.

Adrian, its good to hear from you. My freezer is stocked with 'Brains Faggots'
I have been told by a dietician at the hospital to enjoy plenty of red cabbage as this contains polyphenals which apparently help reduce brain cell damage.
Also spinach is good for the old grey matter as well.

As for the Brains beer, it would have to be the 'dark and smooth'.
Just like me!!

Take care my friend.

Hi,

RE 113. Mr Hugger.

The "outdated teachings of the oil process will have to be re-thought" bit was aimed at the whole process. Dinosaurs and plankton all dying in only a few large areas and millions of years later they produce oil.
Don't seem right somehow.

Gone fishing.

Diesel is around 2pl more at the moment wholesale.

Some garages will put both grades the same and use a higher profit on ul to keep diesel a similiar price to unl

Other garages will put diesel up to reflect the increase in cost price but won't put up the unl to compensate for it.

Diesel price typicaly goes up this time of year as people prepare for the winter months ahead. Nothing new in this really.

around my area. we got 104.9 unl and 106.9 diesel at one station while another has 105.9 for both, you can see which garage does which method.

Oil has now hit 76 dollars per barrel expect to pay 110.09 for petrol withing the next few days watch the goverment crumble when people cant afford to get to work this country is going to the dogs because they fk it up we pay the price

We can all moan as much as we like because it will never make any difference, besides all we English do is moan, moan, moan!! And even when we do decide to protest at the cost of fuel we can't even do that right!!! We end up with a few hundred lorry's taking part in an ORGANISED PEACEFUL gathering in London!!! Where does that get us? Nowhere!!! We should take a very close look at how the French do it, they give NO warning of what their protest will involve and they end up blocking major roads and cities!! This is the ONLY way to get the government to listen and take note. And as for the excuse that we hear all the time when the government out up fuel duty "it's for the environment"... "to encourage everyone to go green"... WHAT A BLOODY EXCUSE!!!! Correct me if I'm wrong but does everyone remember back in the 80's (or 90.s) when the government phased out 4 star fuel and introduced "Unleaded Fuel" telling us it was much more environmentally friendly and all the praise we saw on TV regarding this new clean fuel. If that was the case then why are we STILL hearing the SAME excuse about helping the planet and going green? When you look back at this then you will realise that no mater what clean fuel they bring in, even if they invented a fuel with ZERO emissions they would STILL give us the same excuse to tax us to the hilt!!!

This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

today. 09/11/09 unleaded now stands at £108.99 a litre,
why has it risen so much in the last couple of weeks?
when is this going to stop?
and why does no one seem to be doing anything about it?

This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

Rising UK pump prices seem to stem just now from
1. Local action by retailers to charge as much as they can (certainly no less, or barely less, than their competitors within about 3 miles)
2. The renewed enthusiasm of worldwide (and our own) sp1vs, speculators and city sl1ckers to gouge up the dollar price of a barrel of oil; including the likes of participants within Goldman Sachs and the commodity trading rooms of our UK banks, which we all part own.
and ...
3. The weak dollar, which encourages traders to inflate the barrel price.

What could be done?
Despite the gouged up oil price fuel reserves just noware high. OPEC (and within it particularly Saudi Arabia) is now murmuring about raising output, thus raising reserves still higher to put pressure on the market to cause prices to drop somewhat.

That might help a bit, but what about a good old UK prices (but not incomes) policy? Why not lobby Government to set the pump price for petrol this month at £99.9p?

Motorists would be happy. The more healthy retailers would be happy (they'd sell much more).

With the economic recovery that's just started, we'd all be able to spend a little more in the shops for Christmas, helping the UK on towards the 4% per annum growth that's projected by this time next year.

Seems like a win-win-win solution.

126

So the Government should susidise fuel prices? In other words, all tax payers should subsidise fuel prices? No thanks - you want to consume more then you pay for it chum!

So using more fuel and spending more money in the shops on stuff you don't need is the answer? I think you'll find it's more likely the problem!

"3. The weak dollar, which encourages traders to inflate the barrel price." You really haven't got a clue what you're writing about have you?

This comment has been removed as it was found to be in breach of our Blog Policies.

Can anyone tell me...how do I revert to plain text email alerts instead of HTML?

Message from Press Association 4.35am Saturday 12 December 2009:

'Motorists are benefiting from lower petrol prices after Asda announced a cut of up to 3p a litre at its pumps.

Campaigners said they hoped the move would spark a price war among other retailers to pass on the drop in wholesale oil prices to customers.

Asda said drivers filling up at its 179 forecourts across the UK would pay no more than 103.9 pence per litre for unleaded and 105.9 pence per litre for diesel.'


Note that the oil price closed at about $69.80 per barrel on Friday evening.
It has fallen about $15 a barrel from its recent maximum of about $84pb in mid October '09.

This time last year, when the barrel price fell below $70, UK pump prices moved to 99.9p per litre of unleaded then moved on down to a minimum of about 84.9p per litre over the next 8 weeks. (We'd need to add about 3p to these prices to cover 2009 tax rises, so 87.9p a litre should now be achievable.)

Hi,

It seems you are all missing the point concerning the supermarkets drop in fuel prices.

A) It's nearly Christmas. They want your money at the till.
B) Supermarket fuel is cheap and nasty. Buy from Shell, Esso, etc. More miles per gallon. Kinder on the engine and the environment.
C) It's nearly Christmas. THEY WANT YOUR MONEY.

Seasons Greetings to All.

Adrian John Bell. Merry Christmas my friend.

Hi,

Adrian, Good to hear from you.

My Mother-In-Law (bless her) has a similar plan except she shops for the next Christmas in January and February.
Each to their own I suppose.

All the Christmas decorations are up now. I am doing my bit towards saving the planet.

All the lights on the outside of the house are 24v and use less energy than the lamposts which the council have kindly refused to repair since September.

We are doing our bit for the community too by lighting up half the area.

If you pass Birmingham on the M5 near Jcn 2 and see a large glow on the darkened horizon, chances are it's my place.

Adrian. A very merry Christmas to you and your family.

Speak soon.

Merry Christmas to you all (especially those of you who don't buy supermarket fuel).
And, yes I have a few bags of rock-salt left for sale.
All the best

Steve

thank you for all you emails this has saved me a fortune i much appriciate it keep up the good work

Can someone please expain to me, barring government VAT and taxes etc, when the price of a barrel of oil is now lying at $72 a barrel (gone down over $10 in the last 2 weeks), how our petrol price is still sky high. Where I live in Redcar Tescos is £1.12p per litre, which is up around 4p in the past few weeks.
I'm an intelligent guy but cannot work out how they can continue to keep the prices too high !!

Regards
Paul

P.S> love the site, thank you

The price has come down in the last week yes,
but since before Xmas it was going up, it even went over $80

If the garage went up 8ppl or so then yes it could move it down, I suspect however your local garage went up however 3-4ppl so the profit they lost when they were slow to put it up will now be recovered by being 'slow' to put it down.

Garages and the supply chain would be unable to cope if the garages responded to the daily changes, also customers would be miffed to find it 108 on Monday 112 on wednesday and 110 at the weekend. Would also be difficult to staff needing 1 staff somedays and 5 staff the next because the price has swung.