Pump prices edged slightly lower through October, with the average price of unleaded at 134.8ppl and diesel at 142.4ppl. But that trend may soon reverse.
On 23rd October, the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, a move designed to limit Moscow’s oil revenues and weaken its ability to fund the war in Ukraine. The announcement pushed Brent crude up by around 5%, from $62.13 to $65.18 per barrel — and crucially for UK motorists, wholesale prices for both diesel and unleaded followed suit.
Since the sanctions, diesel wholesale prices have risen by more than 5ppl, while unleaded is around 1.5ppl higher than before the announcement.
Adding further pressure, the US dollar has strengthened, with the pound now at its lowest level in seven months. This currency shift accounts for roughly 1.1ppl of the diesel increase and 0.6ppl of the unleaded rise.
While wholesale costs have risen, pump prices have so far remained steady; however, this may not last. Early November data already shows ten times more price increases than decreases for diesel, and twice as many increases as decreases for unleaded.
Current diesel margins are around 3ppl below their six-month average, while unleaded margins are 0.5–1.0ppl lower. If wholesale costs remain elevated, retailers may have little choice but to pass these increases on to drivers in the weeks ahead.
All eyes now turn to the 26th November Budget, where attention will be on whether the government maintains the temporary 5ppl fuel duty (excise duty) cut introduced in March 2022 (reducing the rate from 57.95ppl to 52.95ppl). Initially planned for 12 months, the cut has been extended and is currently scheduled to run until March 2026.
How markets react to the Chancellor’s fiscal policies could also influence the pound’s strength and, by extension, future fuel prices.
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It will be increased immediately 40%, 43 votes43 votes 40%43 votes - 40% of all votes
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Increased immediately knowing Revves* 19%, 21 vote21 vote 19%21 vote - 19% of all votes
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It will increase from March 2026 18%, 19 votes19 votes 18%19 votes - 18% of all votes
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It will stay the same 7%, 8 votes8 votes 7%8 votes - 7% of all votes
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It was always going to be increased in this budget. According to Reeves the Black Hole increases by £6 billion everytime she mentions it,* 4%, 4 votes4 votes 4%4 votes - 4% of all votes
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Increase immediately, It's the kind of person Reeves is she doesn't give a toss* 4%, 4 votes4 votes 4%4 votes - 4% of all votes
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Increased immediately* 3%, 3 votes3 votes 3%3 votes - 3% of all votes
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It will increase from 6pm on budget day.* 2%, 2 votes2 votes 2%2 votes - 2% of all votes
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It will be reduced 1%, 1 vote1 vote 1%1 vote - 1% of all votes
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Increaeed immediately* 1%, 1 vote1 vote 1%1 vote - 1% of all votes
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Increase immediately* 1%, 1 vote1 vote 1%1 vote - 1% of all votes
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Increased immediately* 1%, 1 vote1 vote 1%1 vote - 1% of all votes
Doesn’t matter which party is in power, the policy of turning us into a nation of serfs remains constant.
Regardless of oil prices per barrel, the price is always inflated by taxation on the motorist; governments love to screw the drivers, seen as an easy target by many, we pay extortionate road tax for nothing more than roads fit for the 17th-century horse and carts. We pay for constant damage to our not-so-cheap vehicles, almost the price of a house in some cases,even bu 1990s prices, only to find being curtailed in our driving by tolls, fines and hidden costs such as taxation that tries to sell you the dream of freedom on the roads while persecuting you for driving on what you pay for while the huge corperations pay less and less tax but use the roads the most with thier heavey haulage and claim they are registered in another country so as to avoid tax or they do sweetheart deals and avoid tax alltogether. It’s all a con.