Fuel Prices Hold Steady in October Amid Budget Rumours – but What Does November Look Like?

During October, fuel prices remained almost unchanged in what was ultimately a very stable month at the pump.

After a month of rumours about what would be included in Rachel Reeves’s first budget and if fuel duty would be increased by five or even seven pence per litre (ppl), the fuel retail market hardly even moved. Reeves announced an extension to the current duty cut and a continued freeze on the duty escalator, meaning that fuel duty will remain at 52.95ppl beyond March 2025.

Unleaded and diesel supermarket prices increased by 0.6ppl and 0.4ppl, respectively, during October; the rest of the market moved slightly more, with a 0.9ppl unleaded increase and 1.2ppl on diesel. The average price of unleaded was 134.9ppl at the close of the month and 139.9ppl for diesel.

The rather steady month was a result of stable wholesale prices. Brent crude oil, the main feed component for unleaded and diesel, opened in October at $73.56 and closed, almost unchanged, at $73.16. There were early price increases at the front of the month as prices rose to $80.93 before falling back to the month’s low of $71.12 on the 29th. The exchange rate between the US dollar and the Great British pound fell slightly during October from 1.33 to 1.30 $/£. This drop increases prices once converted from dollars into pounds.

November has seen a slight increase in the cost of Brent crude, currently trading around $75.50. This isn’t a large enough increase to cause any current concern with potential further increases at the pump, but a break above $80 or below $70 may become an indication of price movements.

Morrisons had been the price leader on both unleaded and diesel for large parts of October. The gap has now closed with the price stability, and there is almost no difference at a country level between the four major supermarket brands.

A nearly identical number of stations are currently increasing and decreasing prices, but the vast majority are holding prices at current levels. With this in mind, and the relatively flat wholesale market, large price movements in the next couple of weeks seem unlikely. However, there is still movement at a local level, so do check prices before buying. The key indicators are that prices will remain at current levels for the next couple of weeks, with only a slight upward pressure currently.

 1 Millon Prices!

The PetrolPrices app received over 1 million price updates in October, a record amount. A huge thank you to everyone who contributed and helped other UK motorists save on their travel.