Here at PetrolPrices, we can often be controversial, we have been known to “stir the pot” but today in this article we want to debunk some of the myths that are floating around about fuel shortages. You may have heard on the radio, in the news or even our very own Kitty Bates speaking on BBC Wales about it, and we just wanted to share that message with you.
It is worth noting that this is just us using facts and common sense to piece together the puzzle and come to a conclusion that we hope can help to dispel some of Project Fear!
Operation Yellowhammer
Over the weekend, it is thought that a former minister leaked a document entitled “Operation Yellowhammer” to the press, which covered a lot of scenarios, some more worrying than others in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
Some media outlets are disputing this and saying it is a realistic expectation of what could happen with a no-deal Brexit, however Michael Gove, whether you agree with him or not, claimed the paper to be out of date, something that was later dispelled by the government and shown that it was written on the 1st August.
Mr Gove, speaking to the BBC, said “It’s certainly the case that there will be bumps in the road, some element of disruption in the event of no-deal.
“But the document that has appeared in the Sunday Times was an attempt, in the past, to work out what the very, very worst situation would be so that we could take steps to mitigate that. And we have taken steps.”
What does Operation Yellowhammer say about fuel?
In this we want to specifically focus on fuel, being PetrolPrices.com. The document leaked to the Sunday Times states two issues that could be a potential problem for the UK. The first is traffic disruption due to checks at the border which could limit supply to London and the South East.
The second issue is due to the zero per cent petrol import tariffs reducing competitiveness in the market, something that is shown by the industry. “The concern is that this is a unilateral decision by the government and overnight we go from being on a level playing field with European competitors to being totally uncompetitive,” one source said. “It will have a major impact on domestic petroleum manufacturers.”
Back in March, the government announced that on 87% of imports the import tariff would be set to 0% to ensure that everyone could still afford fuel which is now something multiple government sources are investigating as a risk to GDP. This is down to the uncompetitive prices UK imports would have in comparison with the rest of the EU market.
However, all of this still doesn’t mean fuel shortages, at least not long term. With the whole situation regarding Brexit, there will a time of uncertainty and this has been known for a long time and should be expected.
Piecing it all together
If we break down where the UK gets our oil from the vast majority comes from non-EU namely Russia and OPEC. Only 8% of all UK fuel is from EU countries, so if we can’t get it from the EU, it would not be long before another area upped the supply. Similarly, if fuel is less competitive to sell into Europe, then there could be potential for it to be sold in the UK.
Alongside that UK oil consumption has been decreasing year on year since 2013, as electric vehicles and hybrids come into play and as cars become more and more fuel-efficient. In reality, it’s probably not going to be long before that extra 8% we currently get from the EU is no longer needed as people convert to Alternatively Fueled Vehicles (AFVs).
While yes, there may be some inflated prices for a month or so, or perhaps some delays, we really think that a lot of the fear surrounding this is just the last chance to hype up Project Fear before the 31st of October.
Jason Lloyd, Managing Director of PetrolPrices.com says “The impact of a no deal Brexit on fuel supply across the UK is likely to be temporary as retailers adjust and source supplies from different sources. According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK imports about 9% of its petroleum from Sweden and the Netherlands, all other imports into the UK come from Russia or OPEC countries. ”
“Should petroleum from any country get stuck at the UK border, I would expect the 7 UK refineries and North Sea pipelines to increase the supply of petroleum from non-EU sources to offset the loss, but that would cause a few weeks temporary disruption.”
Do you think there will be fuel shortages nationwide? What do you think will happen on the 31st? Let us know below
It is not “Project Fear” In the event of a no deal there will be serious traffic disruption and delays particularly in the South East and London that will cause Petrol shortages. It only takes 1 minute additional delay for each car or lorry due to custom checks for there to be several hours delay on the M20 in Kent which is the main route for the Channel Tunnel and the ports. Despite the efforts of the Police and local authorities to mitigate this this and plans to ration petrol to emergency services as needed there will be unfortunately be significant petrol shortages for a significant period in the south at very least..
Hi David the article says there WILL be several weeks disruption. I think significant petrol shortages for a significant period in the south may be overstating the impact. The Government has been liaising with the fuel industry for a while and they have plans to mitigate a no deal scenario. They completely understand that fuel shortages result in the UK economy being badly damaged, so action around ensuring supplies will be prioritized is almost at the very top of the list of things to ensure continuity.
Umm…so several weeks disruption is only a minor issue? Did you see what happened when KFC ran out of chicken? Have you seen how the general public reacted previously when there were petrol shortages?
Jason – are you Serious?!
I guess for your employer it would not be much of an issue if you would not come to work for that 2 weeks period? Minor issue Right?! What if you are taxi driver? What if you are delivery guy? No Amazon prime for 2 weeks – that is probably £1bn damage to Amazon alone, what about rest of UK business? Even if impact is only in south east? Obviously, we can debate how dependant we are on cars and whenever there are alternative means, but 1 day fuel shortage would be MAJOR issue – 2 weeks is something which has not happened since WW2! It is unimaginable and it would have lasting effect.
That is without even considering that motorists are likely stock-up fuel and prolong or preempt the shortage because of the fear of it happening.
Agree! – see my above post. My alternative means currently are a ten-mile round trip on foot on an unlit rural B road with no pavement or verges, or a bus that comes every two hours and the last bus is at 7.30pm which is no use to me when I finish work at 9pm! If I don’t work, I don’t earn money as I’m paid by the hour. But my bills still need paying.
So what do you do if your car breaks down? Why don’t you book yourself a holiday, it’s a minor inconvenience, put it into perspective
Hi Marie, sounds like your in the same situation as us. Oh and Alec, if our Car (essential) breaks down, the RAC brings us another one, but only if they can get to us.
It’s not just the M20 that will be blocked, History shows us that every Major and most Minor Roads in Kent get clogger either by Trucks or People trying to find a way through. If this happens just one Day it causes Major problems for us and the EK Hospitals Trust, which only has 2 Major Injuries Units, One in Margate and the other in Ashford, the Logistics aren’t good at the best of times !
We are talking about delays, there will still be petrol about you may have to shop around a bit, it’s only for a couple of weeks, it really isn’t a big issue, or do you perhaps think we should overturn the referendum because you can’t get amazon prime for a couple of weeks, get real the sky’s not going to fall in
Oh it most certainly is Project Fear, we’ve had three years of it, unrelenting, starting with Hammonds ’emergency budget’ that we’d have to have if we dared vote brexit. Norway got the same treatment back in 93 when they had two in/out otes , absoluterly none of it came true, and similarly none of the dire predictions of armageddon for us have come true so far either. You antidemocratic remainers are going to look so stupid after brexit when nothing catastrophic happens.
These ‘dire predictions’ come from the pro-Brexit Tory government, nothing to do with Remainers. In the last three years the pound has sunk to its weakest levels in living memory, meaning imports, upon which industry and consumers depend, are now significantly more expensive meaning everyone is poorer than they would have otherwise been. Around £100,000,000,000 has been spent on Brexit, money which could have been spent on the NHS, housing and education. What an appalling waste, and this is all before we have even left.
Andrew, are you suffering from early-onset…..the government at that time was not pro-Brexit
The pound has not sunk to its lowest level in living memory, I can remember when the pound was on a par with the US Dollar, when 1 GB Pound was equal to 1 US Dollar.
I can remember that too, from around January 1985 for quite a while. I was being paid in US Dollars, but had to convert it to pounds to send it back to UK
It is all because we haven’t left yet, problems of uncertainty is what has caused the problems and why the pound is so low, if we had left on time the pound would have recovered by now and the country would have earned enough to pay the cost, so, yes, it is down the the undemocratic remainers
Please look at those who strongly disagreed with the current deal and voted it down. It was the “democratic” probrexit conservative MP’s.
You continually complain that those who voted remain are undemocratic because the leave vote, in what is only an indicative vote, referenda having no legal standing in the UK constitution, but forget that the vote to join was with 66%+ in favour, yet the leave campaign can complain as much as they like, but that’s ok.
Where did you get your figures from? They are totally wrong. Please check in future before you post.( but actually if you are very young, your comment on the pound being weakest in living memory could possibly be true, as your memory would be very short)
In Living Memory means, that there are people alive today, who can remember a event.
Yeah, quite right, being a cabbie its only cost me about 4 grand a year since the vote! Higher FUEL COSTS, higher food costs, with the pound crashing my beer went up in Spain!! (oh yeah higher holiday prices!!).
I thought we were going to “The land of milk and honey” according to Farage!!
Still dont worry that muppet and Mogg will alright with their sludh funds and offshore bank accounts!!
The land of Milk & Honey, was the Promised Land, in the Bible, ie, Israel, not UK. But, we are in a prolonged time of disruption. If we had left in March as we were supposed to have done, it is likely, that all the disruption of leaving, would be over, and we would be forging ahead as a Sovereign State, rather than a vassal of a undemocratic EU. Thank the politicians who have made a compete mess of a simple instruction, from the British people – LEAVE the EU.
Undemocratic, as Doris cancels Parliment!!
Sovereign state!!!!
I think you mean the 51ST STATE OF USA!!
No doubt you are one of the rich with loads of money in undeclared bank accounts paying very little tax like Mogg etc.
Have a little bit of thought for the less well off!
David, Did you not see the recent comment from the man who manages the port at Calais where hesaid that things will continue to run as well as they do now and suggestions of huge delays are “bulls**t”?
He also said that Dover will melt down as it doesn’t have the capacity.
I guess your brexiter Brain filtered that part out.
That is not true, the Dover port authority are saying exactly the same as Calais, movement will continue as normal, sounds like you’re spreading project fear, nobody believes it anymore you know, just made up rubbish from people that don’t like facts
David I agree with you. There will also be shortages of medicines without which people will die very quickly.
Another doom merchant being ridiculous …..
Not so, we already have shortages. #ProjectReal
If we are already having shortages, whilst in the EU, the the EU is failing us, so we had better ditch it, and find reliable sources elsewhere.
😂 good grief…don’t you realise you are making the case for not being so reliant on the EU? But remember, the EU is NOT EUROPE!
Don’t worry, Stella.
Once we Brexit we can purchase all the medicines that we don’t manufacture ourselves from the USA, Canada and India, all of whom are approved by the NHS.
Freight aircraft can manage to find their way to Britain within a few hours.
On the other hand, tranquillisers for panickers could take longer!
Only after we agree new trade deals to replace the 77 we benefit from is the EU.
To say otherwise is a lie.
not at all true. WTO is a default position but we could also implement immediate one-way tariff free trade without any deals signed if we so decided.
We buy our drugs from 1 source in the UK 2sources from the EU and 7 sources from the USA . We don’t need to make a trade deal before we buy because we are already a part of the WTO, don’t really think you’ve thought your argument through, there ain’t a problem
These 77 trade deals – some are very small – and as of 4 weeks ago 38 equivalent deals covering the largest of these countries (by size of trade) have already been agreed, ready for signature as soon as EU legislation permits (i.e. 1st Nov). These account for approx 80% of the value covered by these 77 trade deals, and these 77 account for around 15% of our current trade. In the next 2 months much/most of the remaining ones are likely to be agreed…. those countries want to trade with us, are not bound by the EU, and are as interested as we are in smooth transition. Panic button mode NOT needed on these
Bottom line – we already trade with most countries around the world who will be very happy to fill any vacuum the EU tries to create. Mass starvation and lack of Amazon Prime are unlikely to affect us. Chicken Licken need not worry about the sky falling down.
What these remainiacs don’t realise is we used to trade and deal with countries worldwide before being shackled to the EU, these poor deluded darlings know no different with all the EU indoctrination.
Post Brexit, there will be no aircraft in the sky, as we will not have a recognised safety agency, as we are in the EU one, so come November, no UK aircraft will be allowed to fly over or land in any country in the world. So tell me how those drugs will get here again?
This argument has been thoroughly debunked as the UK air space covers a large area of the North Atlantic and EU planes wouldn’t be unable to fly over it, good luck with getting the Irish aircraft off the ground. Besides which it isn’t in the EU’s gift to decide, it is all covered in the Chicago convention, more remain lies.
What a load of rubbish! Have you not heard that we have signed a deal quite some time ago with the eu to allow aviation to carry on as normal? We DO have a recognised aviation safety agency, in the CAA which has far more experience than EASA, which has forcibly overridden the CAA safe working hours for pilots, so we have to work long hours after a very early start (eg 2am) which the CAA has always considered unsafe. An an airline pilot, I consider this dangerous. Our pilots union, BALPA tried to fight this. Another example of us having to accept lower EU standards than our own
Whoa load of nonsense. The UK CAA are the aviation regulator and the will be no change to flights the is already an agreed protocol if we leave without a deal. More project fear from people who know nothing about the brexit process.
Seems the remainiacs have a steep learning curve to get over when we leave, eu indoctrination has really messed their minds up with utter garbage.
Where’s the evidence? Do you think customs are going to deliberately delay stuff NO. Containers of drugs are sealed when loaded and taken to the port details are electronically sent and when it arrives in the uk a seal check is done and it gets delivered.
I know I deliver them.
Same as all WTO imports which is more than half of our trade, where are all the delays and problems at our international port? Where are these massive traffic jams, where are all the food shortages? And how the gell do we manage to get fresh bananas, mangos, paw paws, surely they woul all have rotted at the ports😂
Southampton Trucker….. quite right. Same is true for fresh salad produce. I spoke with a major importer in the West Lancs area. Borderforce UK employ G4S in the UK to handle security at our ports. It’s been agreed already that salad produce packed into a security sealed container in Spain (for example) will be waived through our port at the first point of entry providing that security seal is intact. The paperwork will have been completed earlier and computer processed.
This is what happens now at Felixstowe with all the containers arriving from China and the Far East – none of whom are EU members (last time I looked). Those ships dock, the containers start to be off-loaded an hour later and the first ones are on trucks and away through East Anglia within a couple of hours – all pre-processed.
No there will not . Complete nonsense. The 17 largest drug companies, which between them make 85% of all drugs, ALL have manufacturing plants in far east, and ALL have Head Offices in either UK or USA, except two (in Germany). ALL of them ship direct from the manufacturing plants to UK based warehouses, directly into UK ports or Airports . NOTHING comes through the EU. Wheras SOME drugs are already in short supply due to production undercapacity, thats nothing to do with brexit. Ther wil be no shortages created by brexit, because virtually no drugs come out of the EU at us. This is a perfect example of Project Fear misinformation.
Every one of those uses an EU based trade deal as I’m sure you know.
All of this stops when we Brexit.
…at which point WTO is a default position, or one-way, deal-free tariff-free imports can be requested immediately by the UK.
No it doesn’t stop, we are members of the WTO we don’t do our WTO business through the EU they don’t control everything you know
Wrong check where insulin comes from Novo Nordisk.
Based on what information? The ports will run fine according to both port authorities and we have 3months drug stockpile, Greg’s get fastracked through ports so are not subject to delays, so do tell us why you think there will be a shortage
Medicines are only sold by the EU then??? Help!!! There are no medicines available to buy, in the Americas, Asia, Australasia, Africa. We are so doomed. LOL.
What are you basing those ‘facts’ on? There are no ‘facts’ around anything, because nothing like Brexit has ever occurred anywhere. Nobody knows what will happen. Nobody.
The Remoaners are just being sore losers and painting the whole thing in a bad light, making up ‘facts’ as they go along to suit their own ideologies.
Yes, there will be a whole new learning curve, and yes, things may wobble for awhile, but, we as a Nation have the get on with it attitude to life, and everything will sorts itself out.
How do you know there will be serious traffic disruption? What is the basis for that ‘fact’?
How do you know there will be Petrol shortages? What is the basis for that ‘fact’?
You are a Remoaner, and I claim my five pounds.
Nice use of the appeal to ignorance fallacy in your little rant. Yet again, another arguement for Brexit relies on vagueness and spirit/ belief to carry it through. I despair.
Remainers always despair
It’s because we have to share our beautiful country with Brexiters.
it’s Brexiteer spirit that made this country beautiful.
Another remainer that has no truck with democracy, no common sense and no facts.
One fact for you, we are leaving, suck it up buttercup
Whereas remainers rely on religious zeal for an organisation that 3 years ago they knew nothing about. If the EU is so good why isn’t there an EU party to match ukip/brexit party?
“What are you basing those ‘facts’ on? There are no ‘facts’ around anything, because nothing like Brexit has ever occurred anywhere. Nobody knows what will happen. Nobody.” so what are you basing this on: “Yes, there will be a whole new learning curve, and yes, things may wobble for awhile, but, we as a Nation have the get on with it attitude to life, and everything will sorts itself out.”?
I am in the south west but planning to start a new job 20 miles away. Cost of daily commute by car: approx. £6-£7 petrol plus car parking £4.50 in summer and £3 max in winter. Cost of daily commute by train: Upwards of £12 return but only if pre-booked, plus seven mile journey by car to get to station. Buses to station run about every two hours. If the cost of petrol rises I will be stymied as I am struggling as it is to afford to go anywhere at all other than just to work and back. If there are any petrol shortages I won’t be able to get to work currently unless I walk a ten-mile round trip as it’s the same problem with the buses. We are not all pen-pushers who have the luxury of choosing to work from home.
Should not rely on motor vehicles – join the Green Party and work from home…you sound like you are adding to climate change – looks like leaving the EU is going to reduce your carbon emissions!
Yep, join the green party and become another cabbage in the allotment, no thanks, I’ll stick with the normal people,
Instead of walking, get a bike, a lot quicker and green as well. I cycle 5 miles each way, every day, easy on an electric assisted bike…
That’s ok, you have a couple of months to find a solution, welcome to the real world snowflake
Don’t tell me – remain voter? We in Kent are used to jammed roads full of EU traffic. You are ignoring the reduced transit vehicles ploughing through our country en route to Eire and hopefully reduced numbers of foreign folk labelled ‘EU Citizens’ here.
I guess your biggest fear is not getting your car cleaned by handy cheap labour?
We Kent folk are going to have to get used to far worse traffic due to Brexit.
Why do you think there will be more traffic? Where will it all come from? Perhaps you think we will be doing much more trade with the EU. Oh and sorry to disappoint you but there will be no extra holdups in Dover or Calais
Won’t half of the lorries that will supposedly be held up belong to EU companies which are hardly likely to want them stuck for days. Why would EU fresh food producers want their produce destroyed just to cheer up remainers?
Come on get real if there are delays at the ports why would there be congestion inbound? Traffic will still flow in as it does now but maybe better spaced out. Leaving providing drivers switch off when stationary very little extra fuel will be used. Also as Phillips petroleum exports a lot of its products if that stops it can supply the uk
Sorry I don’t see any shortages happening just project fear propaganda. If they were to be believed after we voted to leave all the doom and gloom predicted would have bankrupted the UK and it hasn’t happened.
Bankruptcy was never claimed. Another leaver lie.
It’s not a lie cos he didn’t say that, you just made it up, like remainers do😂
It was stated many months ago by the tunnel authoritias that there would be no hold ups or delays for the tunnel, they are confident they can handle all traffic. Just more scare stories.
Sorry if I seem ignorant but ! Doesn’t crude oil come in ships into docks then refined into fuel…. so how can this be reduced if there is no deal. From sea to port to refineries to garages
It will be people panic-buying that will cause shortages, of any products, whether it is fuel or groceries.
I see Petrol Prices firmly nailing their colours to the mast as pro Brexit within the first couple of paragraphs of this article…
They are calming you down – relax, soon your roads will be free of transmitting trucks heading to and from Eire…shorter queues in supermarkets….more access to your GP…the future is bright.
Anyone with even half a brain who does not have their snout in the EU trough nor totally depend on it in some way for their economic survival (and that’s about 92% of us!), but who has bothered to inform themselves about its inner workings, should also nail their colours firmly to the Brexit mast!
Thank you PetrolPrices for dispelling yet another scare story from Pro EU people. Yes there will be some initial problems however we leave but mid to long term life will return to near normal. The only difference being that we will no longer kowtow to EU bureaucrats.
As for the poor old South East; sorry, no sympathy we get too much in economic benefits as it is – yes I do live in the South East!
When did you last kowtow to an EU bureaucrat?
We do this as long a we are in the EU,they make the rules & if you don`t know that then you need to wake up.
No – we will be kowtowing to our UK government instead. The government is only as good as the ministers voted into it. Once they are in, they have the power and they will use it to their own benefit, not to that of the majority of the people. They get elected on promises that they then fail to keep. This has been going on for many years, not just the last three years. Each party is as bad as each other. We will be totally at the mercy of whatever idiots end up buying their way into UK government, with absolutely no assistance from the EU to balance out the power bids of the rich few in government. At least the EU can regulate this power bid, and ground those who want to govern the UK solely for their own agenda.
That’s why we are in this mess because ministers are following their own beliefs and desires and not those of their constituents
indeed, 68% of constituencies voted to leave. MPs voted 6:1 to have a referendum to make the decision. Cameron told us that Leave meant leaving all the structures and institutions of the EU, The EU told us a deal on customs involved remaining in the ECJ and other structures and institutions.
Basically, we were told a vote to leave was a no deal leave. And we voted to leave. Every MP knows the will of their constituents on this matter. 68% of MPs should be voting for No Deal consistently. Yet 95% don’t.
But guess what. We get to vote them out. We get to propose policy through them. We get to retain democracy…
The main difference is that we vote in our MPs but then again you probably don’t really understand democracy being a remainer😂
By your logic you prefer to be ruled by those you cannot remove rather than those you can????? Remoaner logic to a tee.
You are obviously a mouthpiece for the extreme right. Probably to do with your funding? I became aware of this some time ago, and have asked several times to be unsubscribed. You have failed to comply with my request. Please do so now.
Toys out of cot David
Dummy first, then toys.
Oh David, calm down dear. Clealrly not too bothered about being Unsubscribed otherwise you wouldn’t have put your comments in!
Oh, and just because someone presents facts and lays them out as they are doesn’t automatically mean theu are affiliated to a particular political side. I suppose you were therefore one of those that believes that all Leavers are Racist as well? Oh, sorry, have I just made an assumption based on your comments? 🙄
Know any racists that didnt vote Brexit??
David Thompson, why are you named after a machine gun? Do you realise the PTSD hearing your name causes people?
And this website platforming you to spout your horrid surname time after time!!!
I was quite disturbed to read the pro-Brexit slant being put on the Yellowhammer report. The facts could easily have been presented dispassionately.
PetrolPrices – you’ve been busted.
You mean the Yellowhammer joke book, bedtime reading for remainers to send them off to the land of nod with a self-satisfied pious glow.
Yeah quite right.
I want my blue passport back!1
As you begin by Writing “Project Fear” your prejudice is immediately demonstrated.
yet as the article continued, the reason for writing “Project Fear” became obvious…..
I was reading with interest until you mentioned ‘project fear’. Unsubscribing
Unsubscribing – really folks?!
Just like we have tried to do from the unelected EU since 2016
Remainers wrote project fear
Remainers are still trying to tie the hands of the Government to stop it negotiating a reasonable exit deal. Shameful. If you get no deal it was brought on by remain stifling reasonable negotiation
Grow up we are leaving!
Well said… The minority voted LEAVE,so all you anti Brexit, just get over it, there WON’T be another referendum, if all you anti brexiteers would stop blocking all the deals so far, we would not be in this position now.
Bob, the majority voted leave not the minority, they voted to stay, that’s what’s so ridiculous about this situation. Democracy should be the victor but the losers won’t allow democracy to take its course.
Bob, 68% of constituencies voted for No Deal, No customs union, Brexit.
I know you think that’s a minority, but that probably has something to do with your intellect, or upbringing.
It was the remainers who voted down the May surrender document, get your facts right. Don’t go raising the 3 year old only 37% voted for it, I don’t see you objecting to the new EU President being elected by 52% when she was the only candidate.
How is it unelected?? We have elected MPs to sit in the European parliament, as has every country in the EU. If our elected Euro MPs make a mess of things, remember it is the UK who elected those ministers, not anybody else.
The real power lies within the unelected EU Commission. If you think for one moment that those whom we have elected to represent us in the EU parliament have any meaningful say in how it is run, you are naive beyond words – or perhaps like so many ‘Remainers’ – just plain ignorant!
Sorry, that is just plain ridiculous. The EU commission are the equivalent of our civil service.
The EU commissioners are appointed by the member states democratically elected governments, just like the employees of the civil service.
You don’t have to like the EU, but don’t insult our intelligence with all the made up propaganda.
smf, no it’s not. ONLY the EU commission can propose EU legislation. In the UK, any MP can propose legislation.
Do you see the difference?
It’s not really ridiculous, if governments chose the commissioners and MEPs vote for the president with a choice of only one candidate how can.n that be democracy? In a democracy the citizens chose there leaders, in a dictatorship the elite do, if the commissioners are chosen by governments and the people’s representative are not permitted to be involved in choosing candidates, how on earth can you conclude that that is a democratic process where are the citizens choice and influence
UK civil servants are not elected, the government proposes law and the civil service produces the legislation which is then sent to both houses of Parliament to agree or modify until they are happy with it when it becomes law. The EU is nothing like that as you would know if you had looked at it prior to the referendum, it is at best a quasi democratic facade to fool the population and it seem s to be working for a lot of people.
“The EU commission are the equivalent of our civil service”. By making such a ridiculous statement you have proved my point entirely – and highlighted your ignorance. Thank you!
Smf, by your comment you have shown all just how much remainers know about the EU. You all voted in pure ignorance of the truth and damned the country to more hardship than was necessary by your undemocratic actions of prolonging brexit, congratulations!!!
Did you know that Guy Verhoffstadt’s party in their national elections got a lower % of votes than UKIP did in 2015?
Yet he speaks for 600 million Europeans when it comes to negotiating Brexit.
Does that seem democratic?
MEPs cannot propose legislation. Is that democratic?
North Korea had elections. Has ministers. Is that democratic?
Electing people to rubber stamp what the in-crowd committee want is not democracy.
But they don’t get to vote for the EU leaders, well they do actually, they have a choice of 1 that’s it just 1 MEPs are nothing but highly payed puppets, no one upsets the apple cart cos the pays so good, find another country that gives the voice of only 1 candidate and tell me with a straight face that they are a democracy
The MEPs don’t have any power, if they vote down a proposal, non of which they can initiate, it is just represented for another vote until it passes. Remind you of anyone wanting more referendums?
I don’t think the remain lobby, or individuals for that matter, are responsible for the border issue in NI, or the realities of international negotiation. I find it both amusing and horrifying that pro leave supporters are preemptively laying the blame for any failures in achieving a deal with remainers, rather than just admitting that the decision to leave was a c**p idea based on fantasy, entitlement, arrogance and nostalgia.
Lol Philip, it seems that there arwle a few Remoaners leaving also! (PetrolPrices that is!)
Quite pathetic really! Some people need to bloody well grow up!
Is the Defence Secretary elected?
Is the no good Queen elected?
You need to do a bit of book learning about the EU!!
I dont think so!!
I’m getting out of here two.
Too
It was a typo due to Brexit no doubt. He has too many tears in his eyes to see his keyboard properly 🤣
Their their now….
Whoops, it is There there.
Bye Sweetheart.
LMFAO at all the Radical Leftist re***ds going bat sh*t crazy as usual… No the world is not coming to an end and no there won’t be fuel shortages or medical or any other fear mongering done by the BIASED BBC and other media organisations… You are being played and they have you hook, line and sinker. Wake up FFS and stop thinking and believing the same news organisations that told you iraq had MWD’s. Come on my fellow brits you have more common sense than this, stop letting the media tell you what to feel and think.
LMFAO says he defending a biased media organisation with whom he agrees, or did they tell you how to think? 😉
Remember Y2K? We are all living in a post apocalyptic dream now because of that, 19 years ago hahahahaha
Free Ireland now and Scotland, let them be soverign instead of being ripped off by England and little Englanders!!
Thank you to PetrolPrices for showing some common sense in trying to diffuse people’s concerns on this subject, rather than trying to instil terror into the population like so much of the media and so many companies are trying to do. We will be out at the end of Oct so the best thing to do is make plans and get on with it. There’s not a vast amount of point moaning for ever about the situation. It is what it is. Obviously all of the people who voted to remain will lose their heads with vitriol at my comment now but, as previously mentioned, it is what it is.
That’ll be DEFUSE then.
There’s nothing wrong with pedantry when one is right.
Remember 1999/2000? Planes would fall from the sky, computers would crash everything digital would run amok, so said the “experts”. Now we have “experts” forecasting more doom n gloom , let the real captains of industry deal with their customers as they have always done, there is no need to panic where there is no problem, “ Experts “ stop meddlin in what you only think you know.
I was working in IT back in the 80’s and 90’s, and we got hit by the Y2k bug on 1st Jan 1990. Our 10 year forecast programs crashed as people who wrote the code back in the 70’s and 80’s had not thought of the scenario. The business I worked for (a massive UK Telco) then spent a small fortune between 1990 and 1998 altering code and systems to prevent the problem happening again. In total it is estimated that UK companies spent around £20bn to prevent the problem occuring, and if you include the US as well, then that’s another $100bn on top of that!!
All that was done to stop ‘planes falling from the sky’, but you never saw it because everything we did actually worked, like a duck on water! The TV shows that were salivating, hoping to report disasters happening at midnight on Dec 31st 1999 were at best just there for entertainment, and at worst, in language you might understand, were just peddling Project Fear!
Brexit is completely different. This time some of the big companies have been working on the changes needed but not all have completed, and some medium and small sized companies have not even started!
I worked in IT too and it all seemed over blown to me, and most of us kept quiet and took the money.
In 1999/2000 there was a very good chance that a lot of things would go wrong, except that an army of computer programmers like myself worked hard to make sure that it wouldn’t happen. It appears that we were successful.
(Incidently, it wasn’t a ‘millenium bug’; it was a ‘century bug’, but there were no computer programs around in 1900 to go wrong. To those who disagree with my spelling of ‘program’: please don’t show your ignorance.)
Of course there will be a shortage because people will panic buy
I am amazed to read that the vast majority of people think that fuel enters the UK via any border. Huge oil tanker ships bring crude oil on the oceans of the world to our refineries like Esso Fawley, Shell Stanlow, Milford Haven and so on and then it’s refined into all the by products including petrol and diesel, lube oils etc. It comes mainly from OPEC Countries ie: the middle east who have absolutely nothing to do with the EU or Brexit. It’s frustrating to read some of the absolute nonsense contained in project fear.
It may well be the case that the problem will be due to panic buying rather than a general absence of fuel, but because of the 0% tariff schedule our government intend to apply, it is likely that the refineries you speak of will become unprofitable (and we know what happens when a business becomes unprofitable!). See this story on an industry site …
https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/news/update-uk-government-is-reviewing-brexit-fuel-tariffs-following-refinery-closure-concerns/
One of the great anxieties stated by the Sunday Times is that Southern Ireland will refuse to continue to purchase the 30% of their national fuel requirement from British refineries, and two British refineries will have to shut down.
Interesting that the Sunday Times knows there is no legal contract covering cancellation periods.
……and where will Southern Ireland get the 30% from at such short notice?
Exactly, plus the author did not include other elements affecting fuel supply like the economics of fuel and the parity of fuel products and biproducts. If the £ goes to parity with the $ it will make everything more expensive especially fuel (crude is traded in $).
Sharp increases in prices will cause inflation to raise its head and panic buying 2001 style will be reality. The fact that you support leaving doesn’t mean you are right about everything.
Correct, there’s more likelyhood of a shortage on October 31st as people panic buy
Any shortages will be purely down to Greed, Ignorance, Profiteering and selfish stock-piling.
I think in or out everything will go up in price for no good reason other than greed and they can. Realistically all imports will still be needed and those suppliers will still want to sell products here in UK . Having travelled Europe the UK is the only country that still requires border checks once you reach the EU theres no one at the old border posts and you just drive on by. So no much will change overall.
What is the Government doing to stop petrol companies from profiteering because we all know they will at the slightest excuse?
There needs to be a mechanism in place that no price rises are allowed post Brexit with a review.
What is the Government doing to stop oil companies from profiteering post 31st Oct.
Because they will at the least excuse.
No price rises without a Government review.
ITS ALL SCARE MONGERING DON’ T BE FOOLED BY SO CALLED LEAKSBY
UPSET MPs
Bored bored bored of brexit , no one really knows what will or might happen, just do it and get it over with and if any , deal with the consequences, cause all this conjecture etc ain’t achieving nothing
I was also reading with interest until the political bias came out . I prefer to listen to industry insiders rather than politicians who are only in it for themselves or Tap room experts. Please unsubscribe me also
I have just unsubscribed for the same reason. Happy with being told the petrol prices but as soon as I saw the words “project fear” in the article I realised that there is a political bias to the petrol prices organisation. This then makes me wonder about the agenda in all their other articles.
I prefer to make my own mind up thank you
I have unsubbed two
You had two accounts did you?
Ooooh, ‘ark at ‘er. Don’t let the door hit your butt on your way out.
I don’t believe this article. I believe that there will be fuel shortages if we crash out of the EU. there will also be Medicine shortages including drugs that are needed by people to stay alive.
LOL.
If you say so.
There will be a huge over supply of eggs as people have to wipe it off their faces when it is not so much of a ‘crash out’, but a gentle bump.
You have NOTHING at all to base your cynicism on, as we are in uncharted territory and nobody has any idea at all what will happen.
But you probably believe in fairies too, especially if they’re EU fairies.
I hope you are right. The industry does not share your equanimity. But to label such concerns Project Fear is mere propaganda, which the Leave camp had indulged in all the way through. . The concerns are realistic even if they prove to be unfounded.
As such a very small portion of our oil comes from the EU I see no reason at all for there to be any shortages. There are probably large reserves anyway so any initial hic cups should be well buffered. As in most Brexit issues I suspect that the EU will be worst hit by us leaving and we should be able to purchase from other sources at more competitive prices without Brussels interfering.
Where is Brussels interference ? We already trade on the world market ?
The source of oil isn’t really an issue. The petrol supply chain is vulnerable in normal circumstances and Brexit won’t be normal circumstances. Whether there are shortages or not is anyone’s guess. I’ll carry on with preparing for significant disruption to the UK and Brexiters can continue to ‘believe in Britain’.
There is bound to be disruption. To be fair the Politicians have always said that. However, we must just do all we can to think, act sensibly, and reasonably and hope that we get through it.
I hate to sound skeptical but I have to say that I have absolutely no faith in anything that either politicians or the media have to say any more. I would not trust any of them one millimeter, they are so spineless, shallow, devious and duplicitous.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49405270
Further reading !
I thought you were leaving. You lied.
Sorry, but I cannot agree with your “fact based analysis”, in fact (pun intended) I don’t think it even qualifies as analysis – I think at best it is opinion, based on few decent points, but by no means fact based or conclusive. You have mentioned few random statistical points, which without full context could be meaningless and equally could be discussed, argued and “debunked”. What would qualify as analysis.. is the analysis completed by civil services and called “yellow hammer”… oh yes the same one you mentioned. I am not saying I agree with it, but it is detailed enough to be called analysis. To the point now…
For example you say – only 8% of fuel are imported from EU and the use of fuel was declining since 2013. Neither of those thinks are very important here. Why? – because fuel supply is very sensitive and carefully planed industry. It would be major disruptions if would have drop of 0.5% … 8% overnight is A LOT! It does not mean all the fuel run out immediately, but there would be severe disruption. Now again what you mean by short term impact? 15 minutes, half a day, few days, few weeks? Certainly, by the time fuel consumtion will drop in UK by 8% it will be at least 2025 based on current trends. So first of all your “short term” is very loose and dirty statement.
As well, fuel is not like internet connection where 8% means slower.. if you have 8% less fuel than you need for your journey you will be left stranded on the road miles away from destination. Therefore, contingency planing kicks in for most reasonable people. If there is even remote risk for fuel shortage people will start stock-piling, some stations will running out, some people will start running out before they can reach next station and all around shenanigans will start happening in the days leading to the exit date and weeks following it. So before we even calculate of how much fuel we will be short of we might have massive and lasting disruption. If we going to have even mild shortage, that will mean billions £ lost every day.. so 2 weeks – that is maybe £14bn.. I think that is massive impact… no?!
You have not mentioned fuel reserves either, which kind of acts to support your point. In the case of small shortage we would start using reserve fuel. However, if people are stock-piling it will not be normal use (it is estimated to be enough for up-to 70 days of normal use), so the reserve will run out much sooner. That is not without even considering that reserve is based on 100% efficient logistics, which is never the case.. So there is high likelihood, that even if we going to have enough fuel in the whole country, individual station will be running out long before reserve is consumed. Beyond that, once we start using reserves fuel prices will start increasing dramatically – yet more reason to stock-pile and fill the tank as early as possible. Even small things like all motorists filling up their 4L jerrycan on top of normal refill could bring the certain fuel stations out of petrol within a day.
Now… could that be mitigated.. yes! Is our goverment capable of that – I would not hold my breath.. I would be afraid to leave them alone with plastic bag in case they put it over their mouth and suffocate (although upon second thought it might be good idea), nevermind having reasonable contingency plans on national emergency types of issues. Maybe the only good thing is that our goverment does not run our country and people like BlowJo are nothing more than irritating mouthpieces. Country luckily (and ironically) in run by civil service and other “unelected bureaucrats” who might actually have a plan in place.
Of course, there will be Panic buying following the very first TV broadcast of queuing lorries at Dover irrespective of whether or not there are genuine shortages. How long are temporary shortages? Unfortunately, your use of the phrase ‘Project Fear’ tends to indicate this is not a balanced report.
Surely we are going to suffer increased prices and queues at petrol stations And increased prices whether it is for a short time Or longer. All of this could be avoided if Brexit without a deal Was avoided but obviously the present government is adamant that they do not want to accept the deal that was agreed by the previous government. Indeed so as Far as I am concerned We would be far better off if we were to stay in the EU and ensure that we have the quality of representatives in the EU Parliament Who can properly represent us not the Farage type who never want to be part of Europe.
At last the voice of reason! I got one am sick and tired of these harbingers of doom spreading false news.
Does the company petrol prices support brexit?
Out of here. Biggest impact will be on pricing as pound plunges further (fuel priced in $) followed by closure of unviable refineries due to WTO tariff differential. PP using term project fear reveals bias.
Goodbye
Rule Britannia!
Yes and airplanes will fall out of the sky, no food in the super-markets because of distribution difficulties and all sorts of other doom and gloom prophecies. Oh no wait a minute that was in 1999 when the “experts” predicted this when they forecast computers would not roll over to the 21st century.
I think the facts are, if you voted leave, no shortages if you voted remain there will be shortages. We’ll all find out soon enough!
Fewer EU vehicles hauling goods not bound for domestic use will surely reduce consumption?
I don’t think people realise how much our country is used simply as a route to and from Eire.
Surprising ‘greens’ are so pro- EU.
So there won’t be fuel shortages… phew… but there will just be two weeks of temporary disruption!!! Umm… isn’t that technically a fuel shortage!
I think the concern is over two weeks of temporary disruption… because two weeks is a long time if you can’t get the fuel you need… that meets the definition of fuel shortages in my mind!!
Oh my god!!! I cannot believe what I’m reading from all you sorry remainers listen to yourselves crying about there’ll be no fuel for our cars! there will be no food in the shops! no medicines in the chemists! the sky is falling!!! the sky is falling!!! What a Pitiful bunch of remoaners you all are You Remind Me of that idiot Lord Haw Haw who used to try to scaremonger the British public into surrendering to Hitler. Are you really trying to tell me that you are saying that the British people of today are so weak weaker than the British people of 1939 to 45 you speak for yourself I for one do not think that we are. We survived that period Without much food and petrol we can survive this should there be any shortages which I do not believe will happen even the person in charge of the port of Calais has stated that there will be no problems should there be a No Deal brexit.
You ramona’s just need to grow up and get a life stop whinging and moaning get used to the fact that you lost the referendum and that this country is coming out of that undemocratic rich Boys Club known as the EU.
I’m not saying there won’t be a short period of hardship and that there won’t be any problems yes they may well be but this country has been through times like that before and survived and I have faith in this country that we will survive again.
Stop complaining whinging and moaning and get behind your country and let’s show those in the EU that we are not a country of whingers and moaners and sulkers annexe show the EU that we are a country of strong minded and able-bodied people that can survive anything
I didn’t realise this website was a mouthpiece for the pro-Brexit lobby. Project Fear, as you call it, is looking very much like Project Reality, and this is from the government’s own impact assessments. The advisory referendum was narrowly won on the back of lies, cheating and broken promises. (£350m for the NHS anyone?). Now we know the facts, now we know we don’t hold all the cards, now we know there are no sunlit uplands, now we know they don’t need us more than we need them, let’s give the people the final say in a confirmatory referendum.
Quite right – we now know that “The Emperor Hath No Clothes” . The sooner these people who are so reluctant to expose the sham and give us the Final Say the sooner we regain our sanity by staying in the EU.
It seems that fuel supply as described by a “Kitty Bates” is a “project fear” issue. It is not; but at all events your blog should be aware that fuel oil is an unsustainable power source from a global warming/climate change perspective. If Brexit leads to Food, pharma, job losses and uncompetitive economy for the UK, so be it. As far as automotive supply is concerned we will have to spend a lot more to buy our favourite new cars from Germany and other continental sources. Fuel oil and its cost is not an issue compared to that potentially massive outlay for a new car. Taken on balance Brexit is very likely to be an unremitting personal disaster for most of us and we ought to stop saying it will not be!
The Government’s “Yellohammer Report” says , just for information that:
“Some medicines will be “particularly vulnerable to severe delays”.
“Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease” …This will reduce availability and choice, and increase the price.”
“Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by rises in the price of food and fuel.”
Fuel supply in London and the southeast would be “disrupted” and there could be “shortages in other parts of the country”.
Just to give it the “out of date” label because it was issued on August 1st is like your car is old after you have driven it from new from the garage forecourt!
Project fear? I feel an unsubscribe..
This government couldn’t find its elbow in its sleeve, never mind solutions to problems of its own creation.
There will be fuel shortages as predicted. The yellowhammer documents then go on to predict imports from our great friends and allies in Russia and Muslim Arab countries will put thousands of people out of work due to refineries closing and the domination of oil industry by those same great friends and allies.
It then goes on to point out that we UK are the. ‘Over a Brent crude’ No control of key strategic supplies and no means to create our own.
That is not ‘project fear’ it is merely pointing out more of the unbelievably stupid consequences of a totally stupid decision based on lies and propaganda. Some of which is known to have come from those same friends and allies who are ready to destroy our refineries.
Using terms like “Project Fear” paints you very much on to one side of the debate – what a pity. It’s also a great pity your article entirely failed to factor in one of the main issues – panic buying. You only need people to think that there might be a problem (and your article admitted that there was definitely a possibility of short-term fuel issues) and there will be a BIG issue. The other aspect, which I’m amazed you didn’t cover, is the different types of fuel. As I understand it, whilst we are well supplied for petrol distilleries in the UK, we rely upon other nations for our diesel.
As others have said – that you consider a ‘few weeks’ disruption to be a minor issue is bizare – how many billions of pounds, not to mention lives, will be lost by a ‘few weeks’ of disruption?
So fuel coupons are not being processed?.
Why are we worried about fuel? We can all drive a new electric car. Lol.
What we SHOULD have done is the day after the vote told the EU that we had left.
Shortages is one thing, price hikes are something else, there will be lots of them as the excuses start rolling out. Expect £1.50 a litre.
Thanks guys, I’ve just spent a pleasant quarter of an hour reading all the above. Great range of comments given.
For what it is worth I am for getting out of the EU. I am old enough to remember when we joined. At that time we were told it was predominantly for advantageous trade reasons. That did not seem a bad idea at the time.
It did not stay like that did it? Since then everthing has gradually changed. They have directly influenced our sovereignty, affected farming and fishing negatively to name just a few. They have also influenced many other aspects of everyday British life through European court decisions. That is not good enough. I am sure that was not what we signed up for.
I cannot wait for us to get out. We have been through some temporary difficult times before…yet we Brits seem to come out just fine at the end.
All the doom-mongers can say is maybe could or might but nobody is able to say WILL
No. I think it is another version of “Project Fear” and the “Remainers” think they can “Bamboozle” us then they are wasting their time – Ken Clarke et al are living in Cloud Cuckoo Land ! What is sickening is when they loose their Parliamentary “Gravy Train ” they still draw fat checks from us Taxpayers ! I think they ought to bring in new laws disenfranchising them from their “Gold Plated Pensions ” .Sod Them !
The most likely thing to cause fuel shortages is.. fear of fuel shortages.
Everyone trying to keep their tank 90% full all the time because they are worried they will run out.
The same goes for food and medicines. Yes, there could very well be disruptions to some foods, etc. But this will be considerably worse if in the week leading up to 31 October significant numbers of people start stockpiling, clearing shelves of staples.
Regardless of fuel shortage I see the government increasing fuel taxation as an opportunity to increase revenue whilst blaming the EU or whatever. Fuel has always been cheaper on the continent, especially diesel.
Stick to petrol prices. Keep the politics off the site.
Here Here
Well, that would make things very boring allan.
I think the threat of fuel shortages arising from Brexit is scaremongering, targeted mainly at people in London and the South-East who whinge whenever their precious journeys take more than thirty seconds longer than they intend. They need to learn to think for themselves instead of believing what they read on their not-so-smart-phones. The UK still has large oil and gas reserves, both onshore and in its coastal waters, that are being abstracted, refined, stored and distributed within the nation. Those processes do NOT incur import or export duties – UNLESS the SNP achieves its primary aim of complete autonomy.
There are some short memories here regarding Dover. Virtually every year the French blockade Calais, meaning nothing moves out of Dover. We always manage that, without the extra parking etc that the Government has provided this year.
What a lot of people here seem to miss is that the report was confidential and only intended for the government. It was not intended to scare anyone in the general populace as we were never meant to see it.
I don’t know enough about England especially southern parts.
But in Scotland we should be okay. Sainsbury’s and I believe others bring in fuel supplies by tanker at grangemouth port
These remoaners and their Project Fear Mk3, Project Hysteria Mk1, are the same types of idiots who predicted planes falling out of the sky, computers crashing causing all sorts of mayhem with the Millenium Bug. Just ignore the wailing idiots.
Nothing dramatic happened after the Brexit vote – 1st the chancellor resigned so did not implement his ‘punishment budget’. 2nd instead the bank of England did the necessary including massive quantitative easing (normally called printing money if not carried out under a right wing government)
…As with the stupid comment about y2K bug optimists choose to ignore the work done to avoid adverse consequences.
I merely ask that all the Brexiteers volunteer to go without should there naive optimism prove to be unwarranted so that those less reckless don’t suffer the consequences.