On 2nd February, the UK government formally launched its Fuel Finder scheme. Under new rules, retailers must submit price changes within 30 minutes, enabling drivers to view near-real-time pricing via platforms such as PetrolPrices. The policy follows the Competition and Markets Authority’s recommendations to increase transparency and competition.

Do you think the new Fuel Finder scheme will reduce fuel prices?

January delivered a sharp rebound in global oil prices, but UK motorists saw fuel prices fall at the pump.

Brent crude opened the year close to $61.62 per barrel, reflecting the heavy price declines seen through 2025. However, geopolitical tensions quickly took centre stage. Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian refining and export infrastructure, while the United States dramatically escalated pressure on both Iran and Venezuela. Washington imposed sweeping penalties on countries trading with Tehran and moved naval forces into the Gulf, raising fears of potential disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian exports fell for a fourth consecutive month, and US enforcement action against Venezuelan oil shipments further tightened near-term supply.

These risks pushed Brent steadily higher through January, reaching six-month highs above $70 per barrel by the end of the month, a $10 increase. Earlier in the month, tensions between the US and the EU also flared after President Trump threatened to annex Greenland, further adding to market volatility and risk premiums.

Despite this, UK pump prices fell. Unleaded dropped from 135ppl at the start of January to 131.4ppl by month-end, while diesel fell from 144ppl to 140.3ppl. These reductions reflected wholesale price declines observed late in 2025, which finally fed through to retail prices.

Wholesale prices, however, moved in the opposite direction in January, as global supply fears took precedence over oversupply. This divergence compressed margins across the fuel retail sector. By the end of the month, the retail-to-wholesale spread sat more than 3ppl below its six-month average for diesel and 1ppl below for unleaded, limiting the scope for further price cuts.

At the same time, pricing behaviour became finely balanced. The number of stations cutting prices is now broadly in line with those increasing them, signalling that the period of rapid price falls has ended. With wholesale prices rising, diesel is particularly exposed to price increases in early February.

Oversupply remains a primary price driver in 2026; however, geopolitical tensions currently dominate the pricing landscape.

Do you think this scheme will lead to a reduction in prices? Let us know in the comments or our poll.

If you have any questions on what Fuel Finder is, check out this page, or email us at [email protected] 

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