Fuel prices edged higher through February, with unleaded rising by an average of 1.2 pence per litre (ppl) and diesel by 1.8ppl at the pump.
While these increases appear modest, wholesale markets moved significantly faster. Both unleaded and diesel rose by more than 5ppl across the month, compressing retailer margins as the gap between wholesale and pump prices fell below the six-month average. The sharpest wholesale increases occurred in the final third of February, although the steady nature of pump price changes meant many motorists may not have noticed the gradual rise.
By the end of the month, momentum was clearly upwards. Across February, 5.8 times as many filling stations increased prices as reduced them, indicating sustained upward pressure.
Despite global oil markets remaining technically well supplied, geopolitical tensions were the primary driver of higher prices. Escalating rhetoric between the US and Iran over Iran’s nuclear programme pushed crude markets higher. By the end of February, Brent crude had reached $72.32 per barrel, an eleven-month high.
On 28th February, military action by the United States and Israel against Iran marked a significant escalation in the region. In response, Iran launched missile and drone attacks across Gulf states, and the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed after multiple tankers were targeted.
This escalation drove oil and refined product prices sharply higher. As of 4th March, wholesale diesel prices are approximately 51% higher than at the close of business on 2nd February, while unleaded has risen by around 29% over the same period. Brent Crude is currently trading at around $83 per barrel, up 26% since the start of February.
Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the 33-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, with approximately 80% of those volumes destined for Asian markets. While the UK does not rely directly on these flows, global supply chains are interconnected. Disruption in one region can lead to cargoes being redirected, tightening supply elsewhere and supporting higher prices internationally.
Periods of rising prices can also trigger short-term demand spikes as motorists seek to fill up before further increases. Although both government and industry have indicated there are no immediate supply shortages in the UK, additional strain on inland distribution networks can increase the risk of localised disruption.
Motorists are advised to maintain their usual purchasing patterns and avoid panic buying.
The PetrolPrices app has experienced a sixfold increase in traffic in recent days, reflecting heightened consumer concern. Some users have reported slower performance during peak times, and we are working to ensure drivers continue to receive accurate and timely pricing information. If you find the service useful, please consider leaving a review on the App Store or Google Play to help us continue providing this free resource to UK motorists.
First time using App, very good, locally seeing increasing prices at Pumps, in Cardiff Morrisons increased their prizes from midnight Tuesday 3/3 so missed out
To be expected with the conflict now happening
It’s worse when you think that if we could exploit north sea resources we wouldn’t suffer as badly, but milligan has an unhealthy pursuit of net nothing, we have no energy security in such circumstances
Very interesting article and it is also very worring now the things have escorlated with the USA and Iran and all involved sofar 😒
Do forecourts really need an excuse to increase prices? Before the fighting prices had been going up, yet the price of crude had been dropping for months!
The current issues regarding crude oil etc was very clearly outlined in your report with no scaremongering that usually happens when watching the news or what is written in newspapers.
I always use this app to check where the cheapest petrol station is especially when I know I am going to a different area as prices can drastically increase/decrease depending where I am and I have found differences of up to 6p cheaper.
Joined just today. Prices are way out. The nearest one to me is currently £1.41 pl. Asda is £144.7.
How often is the site updated because 11p pl is a lot when filling up.
Was bound to happen when the US and Israel attacked Iran indiscriminately during negotiations killing their leader and his family as well as 185 young female students in Iran aged 7-12. Irans hospitals police buildings and energy also attacked. What did they expect Iran to do? So they are attacking US bases in their neighbours countries. Iran have the right to defend themselves from Israel and US. They did not pose a threat. We all have to take a hit now petrol prices go up. So what? Big deal as our country as well as the rest of the West and Arab countries are complicit in the genocide in Gaza Palestine and now bombing of Iran and Lebanon who support Palestine.