Headline prices of crude oil are dropping back from $115/bbl. We last saw prices that high in July 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier that year. Brent crude prices have started to drop following US President Donald Trump’s statement that the Iran war was largely over. Brent prices dropped to $92/bbl on Monday.
But what does this mean for unleaded and diesel?
Wholesale unleaded prices have risen 12 pence per litres (ppl) since the start of March while diesel price are up over 28ppl!
The average price for unleaded at the pumps has increased 5.3ppl in March while diesel is up by 9.4ppl. So, although pump prices have increased quickly, wholesale prices have moved much faster. There is therefore a high chance that we will see further price increases at the pumps even if headline Brent prices started to fall.
What will be noticeable is a wider range of prices. When volatility increase so does the range of prices across petrol stations. So, shopping around really does help you save money on fuel.
It’s worth noting that the difference between wholesale and retail prices was below the six-month average heading into March and so there was already upward pressure on pump prices.
Not all petrol stations will have been affected by all of these increases yet. Due to their purchasing contract, delivery dates and stock levels each station will be affected slightly differently by these wholesale price increases.
The average unleaded is currently at 139ppl and diesel 155ppl. Prices aren’t likely to have peaked just yet. Even if wholesale prices continue to fall, which is a big if, unleaded may well reach 141-143ppl and diesel 165-168ppl. This is based on our assessment of the wholesale market and historic 6-month trends. It is possible that the worst price increases are over for unleaded drivers but there is likely more purchasing pain for diesel motorists.
The market continues to be very dynamic with wholesale diesel prices sheading 9 ppl on Monday and unleaded 3pp.
The rising diesel wholesale price have led to inflation fears. The Bank of England (BoE) are due to announce their stance on interest rates on the 19th March. In February markets where pricing in a rate cut however the recent increases have changed sentiment and now the BoE are expected to hold rates.
Thank you all for your continued support of the PetrolPrices mobile app and web site. We have seen a 10x increase in traffic over the last week. Apologies to anyone that has noticed a reduction in app speed, we are working hard to ensure we have the best possible service. If you have found the app helpful, please take the time to leave a review in the App Store or Google Play.
Fuel prices in Tadley are a complete rip off being 10/15p dearer than Basingstoke & Reading
Hi John, that’s a big difference isn’t in, hard to know the make up of why, could be supply differences, could be brand differences – make sure you use the PetrolPrices app to atleast try shop around and make a better choice for you and your wallet.
But only days before Christmas 2025 the price of oil was less than $59 a barrel, you would never believe this according to forecourt prices.
Hi Mike, some stations are priced by their supplier on the average day of wholesale fuel (plus suppliers margin) from the day before. If the wholesale price of fuel goes up 10ppl or more overnight (which has been happening) then your cost price has gone up over 10ppl or more. You can read a bit more about how fuel is bought and priced here: https://www.petrolprices.com/news/how-do-petrol-stations-purchase-fuel/
The real gripe we think, is that over 50% of the pence per litre is a tax, and if the UK Gov wanted to support motorists they’d review Fuel Duty and the VAT rate.
Why is it that when we found oil in the North Sea this country was going to benefit from this fined but we never did as it was sold off, so we never benefited from it but we can buy oil from South America far cheaper than Saudi but have never purchased our oil from there is t a matter of politics that we havnt purchased from there though
Wonder we are paying for it now
Not only the price of oil it’s the 50% tax we have to
Pay as well
We are 189.9 in Angus
157. 9 in Exeter Devon. U/L.