Pump prices began to ease in the second half of April, with diesel falling back from a peak average of 193ppl to just below 190ppl. Unleaded followed a similar trend, declining from 160ppl on 8th April to 157.5ppl currently.
This softening at the pump reflects a pullback in wholesale prices earlier in the month. Wholesale diesel fell by nearly 14ppl over the same period, while unleaded declined by 2ppl. However, the reduction at the forecourt has been more limited, particularly for diesel.
The retail-to-wholesale spread remained well below the six-month average through March and into April. The wholesale price drop has improved this for retailers, bringing the cost difference back towards historic levels and, in the case of diesel, wider. This indicates that diesel prices could fall back further, but by contrast, unleaded remains below the six-month average spread, and so motorists purchasing petrol may see an increase in the coming days.
Diesel could fall further, but for how long?
Are you filling up now or waiting to see if prices drop again?
However, wholesale diesel prices have begun rising sharply again, driven by renewed geopolitical risk. The ongoing disruption linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disproportionately impact middle distillates, with diesel and jet fuel markets experiencing the greatest volatility. So, any reduction at the pumps could be short-lived.
As such, the outlook for pump prices has become increasingly uncertain. While some further reductions are possible in the very short term, with a chance that diesel could potentially drop 2–4ppl over the coming week. Any sustained increase in wholesale costs will quickly feed through to the forecourt.
Unleaded prices have been comparatively stable. The retail spread is now below the six-month average, and price movements have been far less volatile than those of diesel. The short-term outlook is for 1-3ppl average increase, although further upward pressure may emerge if wholesale petrol prices continue to firm.
Since the escalation of the US–Iran conflict, there have been nine trading days on which wholesale diesel prices have moved by more than 5ppl in a single session, underlining the scale of market instability. This reflects both supply disruption and historically low product inventories, with ARA stocks at multi-year lows and ongoing constraints to global trade flows.
At the pump, pricing behaviour has begun to stabilise. Since 14th April, diesel price reductions have outnumbered increases by three to one, while unleaded reductions have outpaced increases by 2.5 times. However, this balance is shifting as wholesale costs rise, signalling that the period of consistent price declines is nearing its end.
And we won’t see the them back at the prices before the Iran/us war, what happened to starmer asking them not to increase prices?? Did anyone benefit from that?…….No!