Fuel prices at the pump are showing signs of rising, with key factors pointing toward an upward trend for both unleaded and diesel.
Brent Crude and Exchange Rates Driving Costs Up
For much of November and December, Brent crude oil—the key component for unleaded and diesel—traded steadily between $71 and $75 per barrel. This stability contributed to consistent pump prices. However, January has seen a significant shift, with Brent hitting $81 per barrel on January 13th.
Adding to this, the US dollar has strengthened against the British pound, dropping from $1.25 to $1.22, further increasing the cost of fuel. Together, these factors are pushing wholesale fuel prices higher.
Wholesale Prices on the Rise
Diesel (B7): Wholesale prices have surged by nearly 4 pence per litre (ppl) since the start of the year, while the average pump price has risen just over 1ppl. There is usually a delay between wholesale increases and pump price increase and so diesel prices at the pump are likely to increase further in the coming days.
Unleaded (E10): Wholesale unleaded prices have also risen, albeit less sharply. E10 wholesale prices are up a little under 1.5ppl since the start of the year. While pump prices now stand at just over 137ppl, up nearly 1ppl from its opening value of 136.2ppl.
Supermarket Price Changes
Tesco has held diesel prices steady and, after starting the year as the most expensive, is now the cheapest among the major supermarkets. Asda has increased pump prices by an average of 0.6ppl, making it the second most expensive for diesel.
Morrisons leads in unleaded pricing, although the price gap across supermarkets has narrowed significantly. At the start of the year, Morrisons was 0.5ppl cheaper than Tesco on average, but this has now dropped to less than 0.2ppl, with Asda and Sainsbury’s pricing between the two.
More Stations Increasing Prices
Since the start of January four times as many petrol stations have increased unleaded prices than have decreased them. Seven times as many stations have increased diesel prices compared to those that lowered them.
The variation in pricing between stations has also increased. This is in part due to the differing times at which they adjust to rising wholesale costs. This is increasing the variability of pricing in local areas.
What to Expect
While some stations may temporarily absorb these cost increases, it’s likely that pump prices, especially for diesel, will rise over the next 7–10 days.
To avoid overpaying, make sure you compare prices using the PetrolPrices app, which provides the most up-to-date fuel prices from across the UK.
Stay informed, save money, and keep an eye on your local stations as prices continue to shift.
Strangely, the unleaded prices are all very similar in my area. Whereas Darlington and Harrogate used to be 2 to 3 pence cheaper than expensive Ripon where I live.
Lower prices are no longer being driven by supermarkets.